The Wisconsin Badgers (9-10, 2-4 Big 10) welcome the Illinois Fighting Illini (10-9, 0-6 Big 10) to Kohl Center as they attempt to extend their five-game home winning streak. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 19, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 136.5 points with Wisconsin set as a 4.5-point favorite.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers Betting Prediction
The Fighting Illini are hoping for a better outcome after their 64-63 loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers in their last contest. Nebraska’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Illinois. The Cornhuskers had a rate of 0.333 (above their season average of 0.264), while the Fighting Illini posted a mark of 0.237. Michael Finke had a solid outing for Illinois, recording 16 points and 10 rebounds.
The last time the Badgers played, they lost big to the No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers, 78-50. Purdue’s 12.6 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Wisconsin, who had a rate of 27.3. The Boilermakers’ mark was better than their season average of 14.9, while the Badgers’ was above their season average of 15.5. Ethan Happ had a solid performance for Wisconsin, leading the team in scoring with 15 points on 7-for-16 shooting.
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Wisconsin. Wisconsin ranks 137th in the NCAA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 18.4 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Illinois forces the fifth-most turnovers in the nation (24.6 percent). It will also be a tale of two paces as the fast-breaking Fighting Illini rank 46th in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Badgers rank 343rd.
Illinois comes into the game with records of 10-9 straight up (SU) and 8-7 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Fighting Illini are involved, as 66.7 percent of their games have ended under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin owns records of 9-10 SU and 6-12 ATS. Badgers games also tend to finish under the total (55.6 percent).
After the Badgers won the lone game against the Fighting Illini last season, 57-43, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. Wisconsin had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.466 vs. 0.319). Illinois, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.103 vs. 0.034).
Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Illinois, ATS Winner – Illinois, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Illinois is 4-4 ATS on the road with 6 unders and 2 overs.
At home, Wisconsin is 5-5 ATS with 7 overs and 3 unders.
Illinois ranks 87th in rebounds per game (37.3) while Wisconsin ranks 254th (31.7).
The Fighting Illini rank 40th in steals per game (7.7) while the Badgers rank 162nd (5.3).
Wisconsin ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (15.4) while Illinois ranks 31st (18.5).
The Badgers average 3.2 blocks per game, which ranks 126th in the NCAA. The Fighting Illini rank 145th in blocks allowed per game (4.4).
Illinois ranks 42nd in assists allowed per game (11.6) while Wisconsin ranks 51st (11.8).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Illinois is 2-2 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders.
Wisconsin is 2-3 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Fighting Illini have been outscored by an average of 4.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Illinois has defeated opponents by an average of 7.1 points.
During their last five games, the Badgers have scored an average of 64.4 points per game (3.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 63.8 points per game (1.8 below their season average).
