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Illinois Fighting Illini – Wisconsin Badgers Preview – 02.21.2016

Big Ten foes will lock horns when the Wisconsin Badgers (16-10) play the Illinois Fighting Illini (12-14) at Kohl Center. Action starts at 7:30 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 21 and can be seen on BTN.

The Badgers are hoping for a better outcome after their 69-57 loss to Michigan State on Thursday. Ethan Happ was the team’s high scorer, putting up 18 points. The Fighting Illini, meanwhile, are coming off an 82-66 win against Rutgers on Tuesday. Malcolm Hill claimed his sixth double-double of the season with 22 points and 10 rebounds.

This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Badgers winning the first matchup 63-55. Despite the loss, Hill was the game’s leading scorer with 22 points.

The Badgers have gone 16-10 Straight Up (SU) and 13-13 Against The Spread (ATS). It’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Badgers. The 64.6 points that Wisconsin’s defense allows per game makes them the 24th-ranked defense in the country. Wisconsin has given up very few turnovers with an average of only 11.2 per game.

Across the court, the Fighting Illini head into the game with records of 10-11-3 ATS and 12-14 SU. Illinois has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. The Fighting Illini convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 46th in the nation at .737. The Fighting Illini rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the 41st-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.35. The Illinois defense has allowed an average of 65.8 points per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 75.2.

With the Badgers’ last win against Illinois, their SU record rises to 9-1 over Illinois in their most recent meetings. The Badgers also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 9-1. Wisconsin held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice, while Illinois was never able to do so in their most recent five games.

Predictions: SU Winner – Wisc, ATS Winner – Wisc

Notes

Illinois scores an average of just 73.7 points per game (ranked 137th). Wisconsin ranks 24th in points allowed, giving up 64.6 points per game.

The Illinois Fighting Illini average 70.2 possessions per game and 1.049 points per possession. The Wisconsin Badgers earn fewer possessions with 64.0, but they score more points with 1.082.

Wisconsin has an average effective field goal percentage of 48.6%. Illinois is 8-10 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.

Wisconsin attempts an average of 17.0 three pointers per game and Illinois attempts 22.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Wisconsin Badgers have a 4-5 record while the Illinois Fighting Illini have a 7-9 record.

Wisconsin ranks 82nd in offensive rebounding. Illinois ranks 227th in defensive rebounding.

On average, Illinois forces a turnover rate of 19.0%. When Wisconsin turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 6-3 record.

Written by GMS Previews

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