It will be a battle between MVC opponents when the UNI Panthers (10-10, 2-6 MVC) welcome the Illinois State Redbirds (10-10, 4-4 MVC) to McLeod Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 24, 2018, and will air on ESPN 3.
UNI is a 6.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 129 points.
Illinois State Redbirds at UNI Panthers ATS Prediction
The Redbirds are hoping for a better outcome after their 84-54 loss to the Indiana State Sycamores in their last outing. Indiana State’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Illinois State. The Sycamores had a rate of 8.6 (better than their season average of 18.9), while the Redbirds posted a mark of 21.3 (above their season average of 16.6). Phil Fayne was Illinois State’s high scorer with 13 points on 5-for-10 shooting.
The last time the Panthers played, they were beaten by the Southern Illinois Salukis, 64-53. Southern Illinois made eight of their 17 three pointers (47.1 percent). UNI, meanwhile, was 8-30 (26.7 percent). With 10 points and seven rebounds, Isaiah Brown put together a solid performance for UNI.
When considering effective field goal percentage, UNI should have a considerable edge. The Panthers defense ranks 35th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.466), while the Illinois State offense is ranked 201st in effective field goal percentage (0.508). Also, the Redbirds rank 308th in offensive rebounding percentage (24.4 percent), while the Panthers rank 16th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7 percent).
Illinois State heads into the game with records of 10-10 straight up (SU) and 8-9 against the spread (ATS). Redbirds games tend to finish over the O/U total (64.7 percent).
Meanwhile, UNI is 10-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS. Contrary to Illinois State, Panthers games have a tendency to go under the total (56.3 percent).
After the Redbirds won both games against the Panthers last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the most recent matchup, Illinois State won 63-42. The Redbirds had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.641 vs. 0.433) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 vs. 18.8).
Illinois State Redbirds vs. UNI Panthers Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – UNI, ATS Winner – Illinois State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Illinois State is 5-5 ATS with 8 overs and 2 unders.
UNI is 3-4 ATS at home with 4 unders and 3 overs.
UNI ranks 22nd in assists allowed per game (10.7) while Illinois State ranks 181st (14.6).
The Panthers rank 122nd in rebounds allowed per game (34.4) while the Redbirds rank 270th (39.9).
Illinois State ranks 33rd in three pointers attempted per game (26.4) while UNI ranks 141st (21.9).
The Redbirds average 6.8 steals per game, which ranks 85th in the nation. The Panthers rank 122nd in steals allowed per game (6.6).
Illinois State averages 3.5 blocks per game, which ranks 97th in the NCAA. UNI ranks 115th in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Illinois State is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
UNI is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Redbirds’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 2.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Panthers have scored an average of 63.8 points per game (1.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 63.8 points per game (2.0 above their season average).
