Current Sixers outlook
The Philadelphia Sixers have already made a lot of ground comparing where they were a season or two seasons ago. The fact that they are still outside the East playoffs speaks equal volumes on how far they had been away, and about the raised talent and equity in the conference. At 20-20 midway through the season, there are things to like with this team and then there are some growing pains. They are like a child playing outside for hours with joy and energy, only to come home and can’t sleep due to aching legs. The next couple of weeks coming to the All-Star Week will make or break their season. Remember, they have been approaching the Process in such way with a goal of building a contender, so another losing season wouldn’t necessarily be considered a positive development.
They do have the promise with Embiid, a clear All-Star and Ben Simmons a runaway Rookie of the Year candidate. The Sixers red-shirting all their top picks for their first season in the NBA is extremely annoying, so I can’t blame you for having mixed emotions about the Fultz recovery. Also, Noel and Okafor have been shipped out so soon that one has to wonder how many drafting errors will the Sixers admit to before settling for a roster they like. They got some veteran help this season in order to strike a better balance on the squad, accelerate the learning curve of their young guns, and ultimately, win. While most of the veterans brought in are nothing more than rotation guys, J.J. Redick is in a completely different tier.
Redick’s season and injury
Redick is often a forgotten man when talking about the Sixers. He’s a short-term solution with a one-year contract and at 33 years of age, Colangelo isn’t thinking of him as a big part of the Sixers future. However, he’s been a big part of what they have been doing this season.
Redick started 36 of the first 40 games and is second on the team in minutes played per game. He’s quietly Sixers’ second-leading scorer with 17.3 points on average, mostly coming from the long range. While Covington is Phila’s volume gunner, Redick attempts 6.7 triples himself and is leading the team in long-range accuracy (.405). He’s automatic from the free throw line and rarely turns the ball over. While these solid figures won’t wow you, Redick has been the steady veteran presence the Sixers had hoped when they lured him in with the $23 million offer. Good for them, because if he wasn’t there for them, the other options are extremely limited. Bayless is trusted into the backup two-guard role, but he’s not natural without the ball, and Fultz, Anderson, and Stauskas barely played.
Coach Brown has already been creative with mixing up different lineups, playing guys off their true positions, but not all players can adjust so well as Simmons. Luwawu is their big guy backup at the two, but his impact can’t be compared with Redick’s. He’ll have to find solutions and quickly, with no room for error, as Redick got injured and will miss an important stretch of the season.
Redick went down with a left leg contusion on Monday against Toronto and it really didn’t look too bad. The Sixers were sitting on a comfortable lead in the fourth and it looked like they are just being extra cautious. However, an MRI revealed a bone edema and a small cortical crack in the fibular head of his left leg. He’ll be re-evaluated in 10-14 days, but there are no guarantees that he’ll be returning following that visit to the doctors.
Without J.J.
While the new NBA schedule making allowed shorter-term injuries to be better sustained due to a lower number of weekly games, this injury happened at a very wrong time for the Sixers. Over the last 13 days of January, the Sixers play eight games, six of which were on the road. The stretch includes trips to Boston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City and two games with the rival playoff contender Bucks, both in Philadelphia and in Milwaukee. Games in Memphis and Brooklyn, as well as at home against the Bulls, are winnable, but slipping one of those and the Sixers would be facing an uphill battle even if the news on Redick’s knee would be good. If he’d be forced to miss an additional week or two, the Sixers promising season could turn disappointing.
According to NBA.com Redick has a 107.9 offensive rating (second among the Sixers) without negatively impacting them on the defensive end. The Sixers win by 3.5 points when he’s on the court compared to losing by 4.2 points when he’s sitting. Of course, his net rating isn’t 7.7 points as a lot of the difference should be attributed to the fact that he’s sharing court with other Sixers starters, but it also should be noted that Simmons, for instance, has a +2.0 and Saric -1.6, despite playing most of their minutes with Redick, Covington, and Embiid.
The Sixers have a mediocre average winning margin of +0.4. They play at second highest pace in the league. Despite that, they are barely in the upper third in points per game and in the bottom third of points allowed. They are actually a team that is winning by their defense, with all the talents they have. Losing such an offensive weapon as Redick is much more difficult to sustain because of limited alternatives in the offensively limited team, so it’ll take a toll on their margin and their totals.
To my estimations, the Sixers are 2.0-2.7 worse team without Redick (depending on the level of the opposition). This means a world of difference for a team that has been 22-17-1 against the spread this season and has just caught a second wind, covering in five of their past six games. As far as the total points are concerned, losing Redick will hurt totals by an average of 3.5 points. The bookies are usually very sharp when it comes to adjusting totals on injuries, so if your numbers show an unexpected value on the overs side, you might be underrating Redick’s impact. Betting against the Sixers will make sense, however, as the player missing is not a star one, so the market will likely overlook just how important he is for the Philadelphia team.
