For the second time in the same day a Southeastern Conference team takes the field in the Camping World Independence Bowl. The Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) will take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack (6-6) for all the Camping World marbles. And if you know anything at all about Camping World, then you know those are the best marbles a little rascal can buy.
The Game: N.C. State vs Vanderbilt (+4, 43.5 O/U)
N.C. State Wolfpack (6-6)
The Wolfpack comes into this bowl game mediocre in every way. Their offense averages 25.8 points per game while their defense gives up 23.2 points per game. They’re a run-first offense and have a solid back carrying the ball in senior Matthew Dayes. Dayes is a 5-foot-9, 203-pound fireplug back who’s racked up 1,119 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. When Dayes is working, the entire offense opens up. Redshirt sophomore Ryan Finley can work the play action and protect the ball. He’s thrown just eight picks all year to go with a 60.2 completion percentage, 2,824 yards and 15 touchdowns. Finley was taken out of the final game of the season, a 28-21 win over arch rival North Carolina, with a concussion but he’s listed as probable for this game.
Finley, who transferred to NC State from Boise State, does a good job spreading the ball around between multiple receivers. Five different Wolfpack wideouts have over 400 yards receiving, with his favorite target junior wide receiver Jaylen Samuels who’s caught 49 passes for 461 yards and four touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Stephen Louis is the deep threat. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound receiver has 33 catches for 657 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 19.9 yards per catch. Freshman Kelvin Harmon is nearly as deadly and more of a threat in the red zone. Harmon is averaging 17.6 yards per catch and caught 26 passes for 458 yards for five touchdowns.
On defense junior defensive end Bradley Chubb might find it hard to come back to school as a senior. The junior was a beast in opponents’ backfields this season, recording 9.5 sacks, seven QB pressures, three forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and 21 (yes, 21) tackles for a loss. It doesn’t get much better anywhere down the defensive line depth chart DE Kentavius Street accounting for 4.5 sakcs and eight tackles for a loss, DE Darian Roseboro getting seven QB sacks and 10 tackles for a loss. And to make matters just that much more difficult outside linebacker Airius Moore will be in the backfield all game too. He has 11.5 tackles for a loss himself.
Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)
The Commodores got bowl eligible the hard way, bu finishing their SEC schedule with a two-game win streak over Mississippi State and Tennessee. Just like the Woldpack, Vandy doesn’t have a big differential in its average points for (23.5) and points against (22.6). And just like N.C. State, their offense is predicated on running the ball, with redshirt junior Ralph Webb getting the workload. Webb averages 5.1 yards per carry, rushed for 1,172 yards and scored 12 touchdowns for the Commodores this year. While he did the heavy lifting, Vandy has another back, Khari Blasingame, when they want a power back. Blasingame is 6-foot-1 and 235 pounds and has rolled up 447 yards and nine touchdowns himself, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
At quarterback Kyle Shurmer is an effective passer, completing 56.2 percent of his throws for 2,251 yards, nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. His primary target is C.J. Duncan, a 5-foot-11, 203-pound redshirt junior who’s caught 38 passes for 447 yards, averaging 11.8 yards per catch.
Defense is where this Vandy team hangs its hat and they have an entire rotation that can penetrate the line of scrimmage. The Commodores have 66 total tackles for a loss this season, with potential NFL first round pick linebacker Zach Cunningham leading the way with 16.5 to go with his 119 tackles. While they get into the backfield a lot, they don’t get their hands on the quarterback much, which is more likely a result of all the athletic QBs they face in the SEC. They have just 15 sacks as a team. Defensive tackle Adam Butler leads the team with four sacks to go with his 7.5 tackles for a loss.
Trends and Notes
NC State comes into the game 8-4 against the spread this season. Vanderbilt is nearly as good at 7-5.
The two teams are also close on strength of schedule. The Wolfpack’s schedule is ranked No. 43. The Commodores’ schedule is No. 50.
The Independence Bowl has been played every year since 1976. Last year Virginia Tech beat Tulsa 55-52.
10 of the last 14 Independence Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less, but only three of the last seven have been decided by a touchdown or less.
The Pick
I can’t see this being a high-scoring affair, but that over-under of 43.5 is probably too low. Both teams play solid defense, but if you just use their scoring average you can probably figure this one out. Cunningham is the best player in this game, but Shurmer just has too many weapons on offense when N.C. State wants to spread it around. N.C. State 30, Vanderbilt 24
Fun Fact: The 2015 Independence Bowl was sponsored by Duck Commander. That’s right, the Duck Dynasty doofuses who made millions of dollars figuring out how to sexually entice ducks into getting shot in the face.
To make a wager on this week’s Bowl games, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
