The Indiana Hoosiers (11-7, 4-2 Big 10) will have their hands full against the NCAA’s top shooting defense when they square off with the No. 9 Michigan State Spartans (16-3, 4-2 Big 10) at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, January 19, 2018.
Michigan State is a 15.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 140 points.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans ATS Prediction
The Hoosiers will be hoping for a similar result after blowing out the Northwestern Wildcats in their last matchup, 66-46. The Hoosiers held the Wildcats to an effective field goal percentage of 0.330 (below their season average of 0.512). The Wildcats also had a turnover percentage of 22.1 (above their season average of 15.1). Indiana was lifted by Robert Johnson, who was the game’s leading scorer with 17 points on 5-for-12 shooting.
In the Spartans’ last matchup, they lost to the Michigan Wolverines, 82-72. Michigan’s 8.8 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Michigan State, who had a rate of 23.1. The Wolverines’ mark was better than their season average of 13.4, while the Spartans’ was above their season average of 16.7. Michigan State’s Miles Bridges contributed 19 points, six rebounds and five assists in the contest.
The prolific offense of Michigan State (fifth in the NCAA with an offensive efficiency of 121.3) will square off against the mid-tier defense of Indiana (198th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 103.3). The Spartans should have the advantage on that side of the ball.
Indiana comes into the game with records of 11-7 straight up (SU) and 9-7-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is extremely precise when setting the O/U total of Hoosiers games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Michigan State owns records of 16-3 SU and 11-8 ATS. Of the Spartans’ 17 games that accepted bets, 10 have finished over the total.
Johnson has averaged 15.4 points, 3.8 assists and 1.4 steals over the last five games for Indiana.
After the Hoosiers won the lone game against the Spartans last season, 82-75, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Hoosiers’ 12.0 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Spartans, who had a mark of 15.6.
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Indiana, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Indiana is 2-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 2 overs.
At home, Michigan State is 8-4 ATS with 8 overs and 2 unders.
Michigan State ranks first in assists per game (21.2) while Indiana ranks 115th (14.2).
The Spartans rank first in blocks per game (8.0) while the Hoosiers rank 99th in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
Michigan State ranks third in rebounds per game (42.4) while Indiana ranks 94th in rebounds allowed per game (33.9).
The Hoosiers rank 106th in steals per game (6.4) while the Spartans rank 120th in steals allowed per game (6.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Indiana is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Michigan State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Hoosiers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.2, up from 3.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spartans have scored an average of 82.2 points per game (3.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 69.4 points per game (5.4 above their season average).
