The Indiana Pacers (38-28) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top shooting defense when they clash with the Boston Celtics (46-20) at TD Garden. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 11, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Midwest – Indiana.
Boston opened as a 6.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 208.5 points.
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics Free Prediction
In the Pacers’ last matchup, they blew out the Atlanta Hawks, 112-87. The Pacers held the Hawks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.0 (below their season average of 22.0) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.476 (below the 0.526 mark opponents have averaged against Indiana this season). Indiana was lifted by Myles Turner, who contributed 17 points and 12 rebounds.
The Celtics were victorious over the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last contest, 117-109. The Celtics made 20 of their 27 free throws (74.1 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 10.0 (better than their season average of 12.2). Kyrie Irving led Boston in scoring with 23 points on 9-for-15 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Boston currently ranks 22nd in possessions per game (98.2) and Indiana is 21st (98.2).
Indiana holds records of 38-28 straight up (SU) and 37-29 against the spread (ATS). Of the Pacers’ 66 games, 38 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Boston is 46-20 SU and 39-24-3 ATS. Contrary to Indiana, just over half of Celtics games have finished over the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Bojan Bogdanovic (20.4 points and 1.2 steals) has been fantastic for the Pacers while Terry Rozier (14.6 points) has contributed greatly to the Celtics.
The Celtics lead the season series against the Pacers two games to one, but fell short the last time these two teams met, 97-91. Boston covered as a 4-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 188 points, which was 15.5 points below the projected point total of 203.5 points. The Pacers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 23.1) and had a better free throw rate (0.217 vs. 0.180). Victor Oladipo recorded a double-double with 35 points and 10 rebounds.
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Indiana is 17-14 ATS on the road with 18 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.
Boston is 16-15-3 ATS at home with 18 overs and 16 unders.
When allowing under 100 points, Indiana is 23-2 and Boston is 29-3.
The Pacers are 31-14 when they score over 100 points, while the Celtics are 35-9.
Indiana ranks fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.3) while Boston ranks 27th (14.7).
The Pacers rank third in fast break points per game (15.1) while the Celtics rank 25th (9.7).
Indiana ranks fourth in steals per game (8.6) while Boston ranks 25th (7.1).
The Celtics rank sixth in three pointers attempted per game (31.4) while the Pacers rank 25th (24.5).
Boston ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while Indiana ranks 21st (5.1).
The Pacers rank 14th in points in the paint per game (44.3) while the Celtics rank 28th (39.3).
Boston ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Indiana ranks 11th (22.8).
The Celtics rank eighth in rebounds per game (44.4) while the Pacers rank 14th in rebounds allowed per game (42.8).
Boston averages 12.0 second chance points per game, which ranks 17th in the league. Indiana ranks 19th in second chance points allowed per game (12.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Indiana is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders.
Boston is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, up from 1.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 117.0 points per game (12.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (4.8 above their season average).
*****
