The Utah Jazz (9-11) square off against the Indiana Pacers (11-8) at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, November 26, 2018.
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz ATS Prediction
The Pacers were not able to cover as 1.5-point favorites in their 111-100 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in their last outing. The game’s combined points (211) finished over the O/U total of 207.5. San Antonio’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Indiana. The Spurs had a rate of 0.205 (below their season average of 0.211), while the Pacers posted a mark of 0.051 (below their season average of 0.172). Domantas Sabonis put together a solid game for Indiana, putting up 19 points and 16 rebounds.
The last time the Jazz were in action, they easily got past the Sacramento Kings, 133-112, despite being 2.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (245) were well over the projected point total of 219.5. The Jazz, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.4, had a solid mark of 31.0 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.587 (above their season average of 0.512). With 18 points, 15 rebounds and five assists, Utah’s Rudy Gobert had a good outing.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams battle. Utah currently ranks 22nd in possessions per game (101.7) and Indiana is 27th (100.0). Also, the Pacers, who rank 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (20.3 percent), could have a tough time getting put-back points against the Jazz, who rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.2 percent).
Indiana comes into the contest with records of 11-8 straight up (SU) and 8-10-1 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Pacers’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Utah owns records of 9-11 SU and 8-11 ATS. Of the Jazz’s 19 games that accepted bets, 12 have finished over the total.
Sabonis and Bojan Bogdanovic have played well over the last five games for Indiana. Sabonis has averaged 14 points,9.8 rebounds,4.4 assists per game. Not to be outdone, Bogdanovic has put up 20 points,1.2 steals a game during that span.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Ricky Rubio scored a game-high 28 points in the first game, in which the Jazz lost 121-94, unable to cover as 4-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 215 points, which was 9 points above the projected point total of 206 points. The Pacers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 vs. 8.3) and had a much better turnover percentage (8.2 vs. 18.2).
Pacers vs. Jazz Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Indiana is 3-5-1 ATS with 6 overs and 3 unders.
Utah is 3-4 ATS at home with 6 overs and 1 under.
Utah is 3-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Indiana is 5-1.
The Jazz are 7-6 when they reach 100 points, while the Pacers are 9-4.
Indiana ranks second in points off turnovers per game (21.0) while Utah ranks 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.9).
The Pacers rank third in steals per game (8.9) while the Jazz rank 25th in steals allowed per game (8.8).
Utah ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while Indiana ranks 23rd (5.8).
The Jazz rank third in three pointers allowed per game (27.6) while the Pacers rank 20th (32.1).
Indiana ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.6) while Utah ranks 18th (49.2).
The Pacers rank 11 in fast break points per game (14.947368421052632) while the Jazz rank 27 (10.3).
Indiana ranks 1 in second chance points allowed per game (10.105263157894736) while Utah ranks 6 (11.7).
The Jazz rank 5 in assists allowed per game (22) while the Pacers rank 8 (23.105263157894736).
Utah ranks 24 in rebounds per game (42.55) while Indiana ranks 26 (41.578947368421055).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Indiana is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Utah is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.8, up from 2.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 103.6 points per game (2.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.6 points per game (2.7 below their season average).
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