The Cleveland Browns take on the Indianapolis Colts this week in a game that will feature the NFL’s top passer, Andrew Luck (4,011 yards, 34 TDs). Cleveland (7-5) has had their share of highlights this season, but has struggled in recent weeks, having lost two of their last three. The game kicks off Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on FOX.
Cleveland suffered a loss at the hands of Buffalo 26-10 last week. Miles Austin had a solid performance in the loss, catching seven passes for 86 yards. Indianapolis is looking to repeat last week when they blew out Washington 49-27. Coby Fleener had a huge game for the Colts, totaling four catches for 127 yards and two TDs. Luck also had a big game with 370 yards and five TDs through the air.
The Browns, a three-point underdog, will be looking to hold down their home field when Indianapolis comes to town. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at 50 points. Heading into Week 14 of league action, the Browns are 7-5 Straight Up (SU) and 6-5-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Browns have records of 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. A focal point of Cleveland’s offense may be the passing game, because of the weak Colts pass defense that ranks last in the league with 313 passing yards allowed per road game. During their last five games, the Browns have done an improved job of keeping their opponents from throwing the ball, only giving up an average of 195.0 passing yards. One of the keys to the game will be if the Colts can protect the ball against the takeaway vultures of the Browns, whose defense ranks fifth in the league with 1.8 turnovers per game. Indianapolis’s defense should make it easy on the Browns heading into halftime. The Colts allow an average of 13.2 points per road game in the second quarter, making them one of the worst in the league.
On the other side, the Colts head into Week 14 with records of 9-3 ATS and 8-4 SU. Over their last five games, the Colts have a SU and ATS record of 3-2 for those betting with them. If Cleveland’s earlier games are any indication, the Colts should pound the rock on offense. The Browns allow 132.1 rushing yards per game, 28th in the NFL. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Browns to keep up with Indianapolis’s defense in a few areas. Stopping the run doesn’t have to be Indianapolis’s first priority since the Browns aren’t putting up scary numbers in the backfield during home games this year. Cleveland ranks 29th in the league with a rushing average of 86.3 yards per game. The Browns will have to stay focused in the second quarter against Indianapolis. The Colts usually finish off the first half with dominance, averaging 9.2 points during the second quarter. Yellow flags are typically a rare sight when the Colts are playing on the road. They average the fourth-fewest away-game penalty yards in the NFL with 43 per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – IND, ATS Winner – IND, O/U – Under
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland’s last 8 games.
Indianapolis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games.
Cleveland is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games on the road.
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing Cleveland.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games at home.
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland.
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home.
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Cleveland is 4-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Indianapolis is 8-0 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Cleveland is 5-1 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
This season, Indianapolis is 3-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 4-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Cleveland is 3-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and an even 2-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Cleveland defense has forced an average of 2.2 turnovers over its last five games, but Indianapolis is 5-2 SU this season when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
The Cleveland passing attack is ranked 12th in the league, while the Indianapolis pass defense is only ranked 25th. The Colts’ passing game is ranked first, compared to the eighth-ranked pass defense of the Browns.
Indianapolis is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 15th-ranked rushing attack will face the 28th-ranked run defense of Cleveland, while its 12th-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 14th-ranked run game of the Browns.
Cleveland has only given up 18.3 points per game at home, which is ranked 10th in the league. Indianapolis, however, has scored 35.0 points per contest on the road (ranked first overall).
