The Indianapolis Colts (10-4) will go to take on the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) this week in a battle between two quality teams. This game will feature the NFL’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray (1,687 yards, 11 TDs), and top passer, Andrew Luck (4,492 yards, 38 TDs). It starts at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday and can be seen on CBS.
Dallas beat Philadelphia 38-27 last week. Dez Bryant had a great game in the win, pulling in six passes for 114 yards and three TDs. Jason Witten contributed as well, putting up 69 yards on seven catches. Indianapolis won last week, beating Houston 17-10. Vontae Davis led the Indianapolis defense, recording three tackles and one interception.
Dallas is a three-point favorite against the Colts. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 55 points. Heading into Week 16 of league action, the Cowboys are 10-4 Straight Up (SU) and 8-6 Against The Spread (ATS). In their five most recent matchups, the Cowboys went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Judging from past home games this season, expect to see a heavy dose of the Dallas run game, which currently ranks third in the NFL with 137.7 rushing yards per home game. Turning to the Cowboys defense, there are several areas to keep an eye on. It is critical for the Colts to prepare for Dallas’s big-play defense, which ranks fourth in the league with 1.8 turnovers per game. The Cowboys make it hard on their opponents in the third quarter. Dallas averages 7.4 points during that period, one of the best in the league. On average, Dallas has possession of the pigskin for 32:49 per home game which ranks fifth in the NFL.
On the other side, the Colts have 10-4 SU and 9-4-1 ATS records this season. Over their last five games, the Colts have a SU record of 4-1 and a 2-2-1 record ATS for those betting with them. They sport the third-ranked scoring offense in the league, averaging 30.3 points per game. If earlier games are any indication, the Colts will throw the ball a lot on offense. They average 310.9 passing yards per game, good enough for first in the NFL. The Indianapolis pass defense has turned the corner during the past five games. During that span, its allowed 200.2 passing yards per game, dropping its season average to 240.9. The Cowboys need to recognize the importance of securing the ball against the fumble-minded Colts. They’re fourth in the league in fumbles recovered with 0.9 per game. The Colts usually get going immediately from the initial kickoff, averaging 5.7 points in the first quarter this year.
Predictions: SU Winner – IND, ATS Winner – IND, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indianapolis’s last 16 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Indianapolis is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games.
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis’s last 7 games on the road.
Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home.
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Dallas is 7-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Indianapolis is 9-0 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Dallas is 8-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
This season, Indianapolis is 3-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 5-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Dallas is a perfect 7-0 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and only 2-4 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Indianapolis defense has forced an average of 2.0 turnovers per game this season, but Dallas is 7-2 SU when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
The Dallas passing attack is ranked 16th in the league, while the Indianapolis pass defense is only ranked 19th. The Colts’ passing game is ranked first, compared to the 23rd-ranked pass defense of the Cowboys.
Dallas is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its third-ranked rushing attack will face the 15th-ranked run defense of Indianapolis, while its 16th-ranked run defense will look to contain the 17th-ranked rushing game of the Colts.
Indianapolis has given up 22.6 points per contest this year, which is ranked 17th in the league. Dallas has put up 27.2 points per game this year and is ranked seventh overall.
Dallas has allowed 23.4 points per game at home this year, which is ranked only 21st in the league. Indianapolis has scored 33.3 points per game on the road (ranked first overall).
