By: Steven Wisner
Earlier this week, Mets GM Sandy Alderson expressed confidence that Tim Tebow will play in the in major leagues. Perhaps it’s just lip service from a team executive defending the organization’s minor league sideshow, but is it really possible that Tebow appears in a big league game? If so, will it be in 2018?
The odds are against Tebow according to BetDSI Sportsbook, setting the odds he’ll be added to a major league roster at +650 and that he’ll play in a major league game in 2018 at +750.
Tebow’s baseball career is often compared to the Michael Jordan’s ill-fated minor league career with the White Sox. Unlike Jordan, Tebow is back for year two. Even though Tim Tebow’s Spring Training Odds aren’t favorable.
.@TimTebow has arrived in camp. #Mets pic.twitter.com/vLmXxk1VRN
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 18, 2018
While Jordan ended up hitting .202 with a .556 OPS for Double-A Birmingham, Tebow played A-ball last year, but did hit a bit better, batting .226 with a .648 OPS. He belted eight home runs, driving in 52 over 126 games.
While his numbers stack up well against Jordan’s 1994 season, they’re hardly encouraging for a then 29-year old in A-ball. He played largely against competition six or seven years his junior and did anything but blow away the competition. He struck out in over 29-percent of his at-bats and grounded in 14 double plays. Strikeout rates tend to get worse as a player moves up the development chain, not better.
Based on his age and numbers, he shouldn’t get anywhere near Major League Baseball. Given his name, however, weirder things have happened.
He’ll get a test in the upper-minors in 2018. The jump from High-A in Port St. Lucie to Double-A at Binghamton is significant. Pitchers throw harder, have better control and better breaking balls at Double-A. Jordan was embarrassed at that level in 1994 and it could very well be Tebow’s turn in 2018.
Minor leaguer @TimTebow arrived at big league camp yesterday and jumped right in to the action. https://t.co/JCJfC1xSq2 pic.twitter.com/ivseVABdW8
— New York Mets (@Mets) February 19, 2018
If Tebow ever gets a sniff of The Show, it’ll be because he’s Tim Tebow. Despite what the Mets’ organization says publically, the only reason Tebow has been given a chance to prove himself is because of the publicity. There’s no doubt its working at the minor league level. Both Columbia and St. Lucie saw major attendance bumps at their games last season and Binghamton will get the same bump this season. If the Mets’ season goes off the tracks in 2018, they could conceivably use the same publicity.
New York made a number of moves in the offseason to compete in 2018. The additions of veterans Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas were not moves for the future. They were moves for today. The Mets want to win, but this is a team that sold at the deadline last year and finished the season with a 70-92 record. Should they have the same finish in 2018, a Tim Tebow September call-up would be at least conceivable. It would get people to come to the games, tune in on TV and even get plenty of national media coverage for a team out of playoff contention.
Sandy Alderson just said this on Tim Tebow: "I think he will play in the Major Leagues."
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) February 18, 2018
Realistically, the only way Tebow gets on the roster is if the team is out of the race. And if he’s on the roster, he’ll get some playing time for the publicity stunt.
With that in mind, how likely are the Mets’ to crash and burn?
The additions they’ve made have all been solid moves, but is it enough to buy the team an extra 15-20 wins? They’re still without a legitimate answer in centerfield. Travis d’Arnaud is more of a question than an answer behind the plate, leaving the team vulnerable at two up the middle positions. Still, the pitching is what will make or break the Mets.
Last year, Noah Syndergaard was injured, Matt Harvey was terrible and Robert Gsellman was second on the team in innings pitched with just 119.2.
The changes in Tim Tebow's batting stance are dramatic. He starts with a much narrower base than a year ago and attacks with a shorter, more compact swing. He's dropped about 12 pounds. #Mets pic.twitter.com/vN2nNTyUyF
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) February 19, 2018
Jacob deGrom was good, but the rest of the young, talented rotation crumbled. Vargas was brought in to be a calming veteran presence, much like Bartolo Colon was during the 2015 World Series run. That’s helpful, but he’s a back-end starter. deGrom needs to be deGrom. Syndergaard needs to be Syndergaaard. And, Harvey needs to be Harvey. If all of that happens and some combination of Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, Seth Lugo and company fill out the rest of the rotation and serve as depth. This team could do well. Unfortunately, that’s a lot of “ifs”.
A weak division behind the Washington Nationals could help bump up the Mets’ win total, but the wild card will be tough to break with the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Brewers and Cardinals all better teams on paper.
In the end, it may be worth the gamble to bet against the Mets. Look for the team to fall out of realistic competition by mid-August. That will open the door for Tebow to get a chance at a promotion in September. The outfielder isn’t on the 40-man roster, yet. That’s another hurdle, but hardly one that’ll stop the Mets from a chance to create some attention around their team if the play on the field isn’t good enough to garner that attention. We’ve already seen the media circus with him at Port St. Lucie and the Tim Tebow Spring Training Odds are certainly fun.
