About Thomas
One of the most impressive events of the year 2017 was the solar eclipse. In the NBA world, however, it was dwarfed the very next day, when the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers announced their trade that would send the disgruntled star Kyrie Irving to the Beantown in exchange for Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas and prized Brooklyn’s pick in the upcoming draft.
It was certainly a good haul for the Cavaliers, who were pressured to act, but since they’ve also lost a terrific offensive player and Thomas hip injury wouldn’t heal as quickly as he had hoped for, it was hard to tell whether it was a win for Cleveland.
Always an underdog, Isaiah Thomas beat all odds and grew into a top 10 scorer in his last season, and his impressive showing earned him a trip to the All-Star and an invitation to the NBA stardom. He came a long way from being traded as a redundant third point guard from the Kings and later the Suns. During the last season, Thomas averaged career-best 28.9 points per game as well as 46.3 percent from the field on a high usage, also a career best. In a little more than two seasons in Boston, Thomas was close to a fan favorite and certainly a likable character across the league. Then, the trade hit.
Road to recovery
There was a lot of speculation that Thomas’ hip injury could be career threatening, or damaging, and considering that the Cavaliers managed to get another second-round pick in the deal after their doctors examined him tells us that where’s smoke, there’s fire. Thomas game depends a lot on his ability to beat a defender to a spot on the court, so there’s still a shadow cast over his level now that he’s back. If you believe that the Cavaliers wouldn’t have made the trade without being sure about his future, think twice. Does acquiring Rose makes much sense? Mind you, Brooklyn’s first round pick is the big prize here.
Without Thomas, or to put it more correctly, without Irving, the Cavaliers have struggled as much as we expected them. James will attract veteran players left and right, so they’ve filled their roster with some solid players that were stars in their own time, but with poor coaching and the diminishing focus on defense, the Cavaliers started the season very slowly. Even at 33, James is still able to shoulder the load, and that’s exactly what he did to pick his team up. He handled the point guard duties, lead the team physically and mentally and the Cavaliers are now back among the best teams in their Conference. As impressive as James was, the overload will hurt his body eventually, and the Cavaliers must be aware of that. Thomas is supposed to provide a relief for James, so his return is considered a blessing. The question is, will he really help them?
Immediate impact
There are layers of how Thomas’ recovery from labral tear will impact the Cavaliers.
From the coaching standpoint, it’s a headache. Lue showed no capacity to handle any change so far, and the Cavaliers have settled with a rotation they felt comfortable with. They now have more players wanting to play than minutes to distribute. Lue has stated before that he’ll not extend his rotation beyond 10 players, and with healthy Thomas, Calderon is likely to go from a successful starter to a clapping role. Rose is an odd fit anyway, but once he returns, he’ll ask to play. With Wade handling backup point duties, the Cavaliers will have to make some decisions.
As for Thomas, he’ll be restricted by low minutes as he was away for so long. He looked good in practice and will come off the bench in his return tonight. Still, his reputation is much larger than his impact. In fact, a case could be made that even with all the good things he’s done under great coach Stevens in Boston aren’t on par with his rep. It’s unfair to compare Boston’s results since he’s gone with those prior to his departure, but it’s safe to say that as much as he helps his team on the offensive side, he’s a liability on the defense. At this point, Cleveland doesn’t need help on the offensive end. And for him to act as a guardian of James’ health, the market is going to count him for more.
Individual and team futures
When the Cavaliers and the Celtics made the trade, the bookmakers wouldn’t flinch. They barely changed any future team odds, later only slightly adjusting them to count for his prolonged return estimation. The only impact this change brought was in the MVP race.
A borderline candidate for the MVP award last year, Thomas chances plummeted as soon as he joined James. His odds to win dropped from +3000 to +10000, and the award surely looks out of reach now. Still, his return will impact James chances. When the trade was announced, the books have actually thought that it will lower James chances, but he’s currently a frontrunner. Recent bad Rockets’ streak calmed Harden’s appeal and he’s about to miss few weeks with an injury. Durant and Curry cancel each other out, and Boston and San Antonio are doing with a team approach. James is the guy that’s leading the pack at this moment, but as he and his team try to accommodate and learn how to play with Thomas, he’ll lose most, if not all, of the head start. Remember, the Cavaliers have not been able to go through training camp and preseason with Thomas – they’ll have to adjust on a fly.
The Cavaliers were projected to win 56 games this season, and it was already known that Thomas will miss a significant number of games as soon as the trade was made. With all the early season struggles, they are only a game off the pace – if they’d keep the current 2-1 ratio, they’d finish with 55 wins. Thomas, if healthy, surely can contribute to an increase of that ratio by at least few games. However, initially, he’ll probably have a negative impact on the Cavs success.
Despite the reputation as the fourth quarter guy, Thomas is unlikely to be given the ball in the clutch with the same frequency as he enjoyed it in Boston. The Cavaliers have been winning too many close games against subpar teams to gamble it away with the new approach to what has been working. If they do it, it’ll hurt them.
In the long term, Thomas is an upgrade over Rose due to his shooting. He’s been efficient last season but is still more of a volume shooter from the deep. Still, he’ll stretch and occupy the attention of opposing defenses enough to work for the benefit of the Cavs offense. Assuming he can still beat his man off the dribble, he can drive and kick, but unless such a pass finds his way to Love, it’s not what the Cavaliers need.
Thomas ranked worst among all point guards in the defensive rating last year, and second worst among all players. Mind you, that was within an organized scheme and with a coach who did plenty of work to mask his team’s deficiencies. The Cavs don’t have a team defense that will be able to sustain it, so his impact will likely affect total points, increasing them by at least a few on average.
As for the NBA title chances, old Thomas would affect it positively. With enough time to adjust to the new team, he could become an important weapon come playoffs. Still, there’s a lot of ifs that should align correctly for it to happen. He wasn’t much of a driving force for the Celtics in the postseason last year but should be solid in a supporting role. Unless he can beat odds yet again.
