We arrive to Round 21 of the Italian Football Serie A campaign, and the table is tight entering the weekend.
Of course I do things my own way around here, and I hope you all enjoy what is about to come your way. You will also notice that we have a new writer on the GMS staff. The Admiral, who has a nice history of football knowledge and has joined the madness. Please make him feel welcome, and enjoy the coverage we are trying to provide towards the beautiful game.
It is all about the lines, and what we can do with them, so let’s put up the numbers.
But before we do, there are certainly some big matches on deck this weekend. Four clubs in the top five of the Italian Serie A table are butting heads. AC Milan (5) is hosting Napoli (3) in one of the two Saturday contests. Juventus (1) will play host to Lazio (4) on Sunday, while Roma sits just one point back in second place.
The table is what it is, but there is so much Italian Football left to be played this year.
Those lines are ready now, so hit it please! These lines are taken from one of the best sites on the planet. If you want to follow my ACTION, click there to go get ’em in!
Saturday, January 21 (2 Matches)
Chievo Verona vs Fiorentina
3-Way: 1: +240 Home ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: +130 Away
Spread: Chievo +0.5 -145 ; Viola -0.5 +130
Total 2.5: Over +120 ; Under -140
AC Milan vs Napoli
3-Way: 1: +265 Home ; X: +255 Draw ; 2: +110 Away
Spread: Milan +0.5 -130 ; Napoli -0.5 +110
Total 2.5: Over -125 ; Under +105
Sunday, January 22 (8 Matches)
Juventus vs Lazio
3-Way: 1: -190 Home ; X: +320 Draw ; 2: +575 Away
Spread: Juventus -1 -115 ; Lazio +1 -105
Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100
Bologna vs Torino
3-Way: 1: +210 Home ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: +145 Away
Spread: Bologna Pk +125 ; Torino Pk -145
Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120
Empoli vs Udinese
3-Way: 1: +155 Home ; X: +215 Draw ; 2: +205 Away
Spread: Empoli Pk -135 ; Udinese Pk +115
Total 2: Over -125 ; Under +105
Genoa vs Crotone
3-Way: 1: -175 Home ; X: +300 Draw ; 2: +550 Away
Spread: Genoa -1 +100 ; Crotone +1 -120
Total 2.5: Over -110 ; Under -110
Palermo vs Inter Milan
3-Way: 1: +525 Home ; X: +300 Draw ; 2: -170 Away
Spread: Palermo +1 -115 ; Inter -1 -105
Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100
Pescara vs Sassuolo
3-Way: 1: +195 Home ; X: +240 Draw ; 2: +150 Away
Spread: Pescara Pk +115 ; Sassuolo Pk -135
Total 2.5: Over -110 ; Under -110
Atalanta vs Sampdoria
3-Way: 1: -145 Home ; X: +270 Draw ; 2: +455 Away
Spread: Atalanta -0.5 -145 ; Sampdoria +0.5 +125
Total 2.5: Over -110 ; Under -110
AS Roma vs Cagliari
3-Way: 1: -375 Home ; X: +525 Draw ; 2: +1000 Away
Spread: Roma -1.5 -145 ; Cagliari +1.5 +125
Total 3.5: Over -110 ; Under -110
Now that the lines are out, let’s make some sense of it all and find the action.
First of all, keep in mind that there were mid-week Coppa Italia matches. As I put this article up, it is Wednesday night and two matches went down earlier today. Sassuolo let a 1 -0 lead evaporate to the lone remaining Serie B club in the competition, Cesena. Cesena is near the Serie B cellar, and might not even survive relegation to Lega Pro next year.
If you follow my plays where I track stuff, you saw I had Lazio in the second Coppa Italia match on Wednesday. Lazio hosted Genoa, and a crazy 2 – 2 first half eventually saw Lazio earn a 4 – 2 win. The quarterfinals are just about set in the Italian Cup, with one match remaining. Roma will host Sampdoria on Thursday to decide the eighth and final spot.
I might just post plays for the rest of the Coppa Italia here at GMS. I have followed that damn thing for 30-something years, at least. Play will resume on January 24 and 25, with the other two matches being played on January 31 and February 1.
So to the pitch we go, and what a crazy weekend we had unfold in round 20. There were 30 goals scored in the 10 matches played, and eight different clubs scored at least twice. The round closed with the 2 – 2 match in Torino with AC Milan, and that, too, was a fun match to watch. Torino looked like they were in complete control of Milan through the first half-hour of the match. Two early goals for Torino almost turned into a 3 – 0 lead, but Adem Ljajic simply looked terrible on his penalty kick opportunity.
What is Adem Ljajic doing wearing number 10 anyway? Sorry, I wore number 10 my whole playing career, and IMHO he is not worthy of a 10 jersey for any club. In essence, his missed chance gave Milan a spark, and it eventually cost the club three points. Milan scored twice in the second half to steal a point, and it could have been worse. Actually both clubs had a few decent opportunities to score a third goal, but a 2 – 2 draw was the result. It was a nice way to end the round on Monday.
Anyway, AC Milan, as I mentioned, is playing in one of the two Saturday matches. Their match with Napoli will be airing on beINsports at 2:45 p.m ET, and this oughta be some fun!
I think we all understand why this total is being offered at -125, because who expects less than a 2 – 1 match? We all know Milan’s keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma is spectacular. He’s the next ‘Gigi’ and all that hype that comes with it. Kid is huge too. I mean you look at him taking angles, and he does indeed take up so much space.
Napoli has scored 45 goals. Here, let me say that again because it is impressive. Napoli has poured 45 goals into the back of the net through 20 matches played. NASA tells us that Napoli is scoring 2.5 goals per outing so far, and we all wondered how the loss of Gonzalo Higuain would affect the club.
Not so much apparently, because that is quite a pace, and Napoli had no problem with Milan in the first meeting. Napoli blasted four goals past Donnarumma in their August encounter. If I recall, there was a crazy finish to that match, with some red cards handed out and a late goal that created more extracurriculars between them.
I imagine that they are both looking forward to this outing, so let’s hope more fireworks go off.
Suggested Play:
AC Milan / Napoli Over 2.5 @ -125
Why did I not mention the first match of the weekend? I don’t know, so let’s put a play on the board for that match too.
Chievo is going to get their ass handed to them. How’s that for analysis? I hope too many people think that Fiorentina’s win over Juventus last weekend means it is time for a let-down. I digress because Chievo is an absolute mess!
At a lovely +130, there is plenty of value on the Viola this Saturday, so don’t be shy!
Suggested play:
Fiorentina 3-Way 1×2 @ +130 vs Chievo
On Sunday, the first match of the Italian Football day comes at Juventus Stadium, with a 12:30 p.m start local Turin time. That match is also going to be aired on beiNsports, although I will be recording it. That is 6:30 a.m here in New York, and I just don’t see myself getting up in time for that one. It should be a good one though, because I also expect to wake up and see that they scored goals on each other.
Anyone who has listened to my radio shows for the last 8 years knows that I love picking on Lazio away from Rome. I have been doing it for years, and I’m talking so many years! Even more so the last five years, and this weekend will be no exception. I can expect a 2 – 1 match in the first hour, much less through 90 minutes. With that outcome in mind, the total will make the board.
Suggested Play:
Juventus vs Lazio Over 2.5 @ -120
Pescara and Sassuolo are taking the pitch on Sunday and we are going to surely take advantage of those two messes.
I just watched Sassuolo give up two goals to Cesena this afternoon in the Coppa, to get eliminated from the tournament. CESENA!! You have got to be kidding me. Pescara is their own hot mess, and they too can’t get out of their own way much less in someone else’s way. The two have combined to allow 70 goals through the first 20 matches of the campaign. Pescara hasn’t even played their 20th game yet, and will have a make-up coming later, so they’ve allowed 36 goals in 19 games. Yuck, poo!
Suggested Play:
Pescara vs Sassuolo Over 2.5 @-110
* This first half total Over 1 can be found at -115 as well, so don’t be shy with that either!
I want to get in to some Serie B for everyone as well, because if you know one thing about me, you know I kill Serie B unlike any other league.
I think i will give out one more top flight play, and simply hand out a few second tier plays for everyone.
Now I have to find it, which will be tough actually. If you have tickets to the Genoa vs Crotone match? I’m sorry! That would be like sitting through a 49ers vs Browns game in the NFL, which no one would do on purpose.
How about we wrap up the Serie A board, and just throw in the Palermo / Inter total. Is 2.5 supposed to scare someone from splashing the pot on the Over 2.5? At -120, that is fair enough to expect no less than a 2 – 1 finish, so that will be my last suggestion for top flight Italian Football this weekend.
Suggested Play:
Palermo vs Internazionale Over 2.5 @ -120
Did someone say second tier? I thought I heard someone mention Serie B before. Wait, that was me wasn’t it? Well who else could it have been? I am the only one writing this!
There are a couple of plays we would like to hand out in Serie B this weekend.
Carpi and Vicenza take the pitch on Saturday, and you need to find the Both Teams to Score prop bet here.
This match will certainly be 1 – 1 at the very least, and although the Over 2 is marginally juiced, it could make sense in a combo to someone. Take one of your favorite plays, put it with the Carpi / Vicenza over 2 with whatever line you get, which could be -135 or so. I just personally do not like putting anything beyond -125 as a single entity, so when the juice goes up, it makes good combo material.
With that said, I am dropping two bets down.
Suggested Plays:
Carpi vs Vicenza ~ Both Teams to Score @ +105; & the Over 2 & 2.5 A.H at +100
Play that total according to your own betting style.
I will toss in another total, because Virtus Entella and Frosinone should be going crazy against each other this Saturday. I see the Over 2 & 2.5 Asian Handicap line at -110, either at pinnacle or betonline depending on where you live. Either way, I don’t care if you live in Zimbabwe, find a way to get in on that action. Hey now, if you are from Zimbabwe? Uve nemhanza yakanaka with your bet!
Suggested Play:
Entella vs Frosinone Over 2 & 2.5 AH @ -110
This play might come as a surprise to some pundits, but I have a home club and a decent line to attack.
Spal is listed at about +115 on the 3-Way 1×2 line to win outright. When Benevento’s Amato Ciciretti went down on Christmas Eve, he didn’t even dress in their last match. The time off has helped, but he is not expected back this weekend.
That should make life easier for Spal at home, and the price fits my needs.
Suggested Play:
Spal 3-Way 1×2 @ +115 vs Benevento
With the ‘bold prediction of the weekend’, I will offer up a play on a road squad with a safety net.
Pisa is in so much trouble, and when this campaign is said and done, they will not be in Serie B next year. You heard it here first, and I will take credit for it in June.
You simply cannot score seven goals and be expected to find points outside of a 0 – 0 draw.
Ternana is not the best road club we can play, but at least they can score.
I see +210 on the 0/Pk Draw no Bet handicap towards Ternana, and that is bold enough for me. If they draw, so be it. No harm, no foul, and we live to bet another play.
Suggested Play:
Ternana 0/Pk DBN AH @ +210 vs Pisa
What’s that saying? Fortune favors the bold? Okay then, that fills that prescription!
In Bocca Al Lupo! Make it Rain!
