The official second half of the Italian Serie A campaign is upon us, as we have reached the 20th fixture of the 2015-16 season.
Three Saturday matches lead us to the seven Sunday affairs that make up the round, and we are here to help you all squeeze some funds out of the bookmakers’ pockets this weekend.
Napoli enters the back half of the campaign two points atop the Serie A table, with Juventus close behind, trailing by a mere two points and tied with Inter Milan with 39 points.
Inter Milan and Juventus each face away matches this weekend, although both are favored to take three points from Atalanta and Udinese, respectively.
Let’s take it to the pitch, and see what offers we can put on the table this weekend around Serie A for round 20.
Saturday, January 16 – 3 Matches
Atalanta vs Inter Milan
3-Way: 1: Atalanta +280 Home ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Inter +110 Away
Spread: Atalanta +0.5 -130; Inter -0.5 +110
Total 2: Over -150 ; Under +120
Analysis and Prediction:
Atalanta has now lost four straight outings, and scoring is once again starting to be an issue for La Dea. We are no strangers to seeing Atalanta struggle to find the net over recent years, so it is not all that surprising to see it again.
Inter has lost two of their last three, although both of them came back at the San Siro. Strange losses, in fact, as Lazio and Sassuolo are the responsible parties.
Felipe Melo will be serving the last of a three-game ban for his antics and language towards the ref during Inter’s loss to Lazio.
One odd thing I noticed last night at Diamond is that they had the total listed at 2.5 and had it heavily juiced towards the under, and now? We see a complete turnaround, bringing the line down to 2 while slapping heavy juice on the Over.
Atalanta is dealing with a good bit of absences too, so at +110, I am going to give the nod to Inter to find three points, and offer the +110 3-Way play.
Torino vs Frosinone
3-Way: 1: Torino -330 Home ; X: +440 Draw ; 2: Frosinone +1025 Away
Spread: Torino -1.5 -120 ; Frosinone +1.5 +100
Total 2.5: Over -135 ; Under +115
Analysis and Prediction:
Twelve losses in their first year in Serie A, and 41 goals allowed through 19 matches, is not going to keep Frosinone in top flight Italian football beyond this season.
However, if there is one club that Frosinone should be able to at least hang around with in Serie A, it is Torino.
Torino has lost four straight outings, which spans three league outings, and a Coppa Italia beat down at the hands of Juventus.
At an even money +100 offer, this should be a decent opportunity to hope the other team from Rome can hang around, so the +1.5 handicap with the Canaries goes on the board.
Napoli vs Sassuolo
3-Way: 1: Napoli -340 Home ; X: +460 Draw ; 2: Sassuolo +1035 Away
Spread: Napoli -1.5 -120 ; Sassuolo +1.5 +100
Total 3: Over -120; Under +100
Analysis and Prediction:
Obviously, for those that are aware of the Serie A schedule, this weekend marks the official back half of the campaign, so all these matches we are discussing are re-matches from the first fixtures of this season.
Sassuolo took down Napoli 2 – 1 to start the year, and Napoli has only lost one league contest since, which has them two points in front of Juventus at the top of the table.
Revenge can be a beautiful thing, but I am going to suggest this total.
The 3 at -120 seems fair enough to me, even if we do see a repeat of the 2 – 1 result from the first meeting.
I have never met a push that I didn’t accept. Grab the Over 3.
Sunday, January 17 – 7 Matches
Chievo Verona vs Empoli
3-Way: 1: Chievo +150 Home ; X: +210 Draw ; 2: Empoli +215 Away
Spread: Chievo Pk -130 ; Empoli Pk +110
Total 2: Over -110 ; Under -110
Analysis and Prediction:
We move to Sunday, and Empoli helped us cash a nice ticket last weekend with the 1 – 0 win over Torino on the road. That is, of course, if you listened to my World Tour Podcast here at GMS.
Empoli is being listed at +215 to get the three points, but at +110, that Draw no Bet offer with the Pk is more than tempting to me.
Chievo, as we know, got off to a great start to the campaign, and after a bit of a struggle to keep that pace, they have at least taken 10 points from their last five outings with three wins and a draw. to end the front portion of the season.
Even if these two battle to a draw, a 1 – 1 result won’t hurt me a bit if I offer this Draw no Bet action, so at +110, I will indeed offer Empoli and the Pk.
AC Milan vs Fiorentina
3-Way: 1: Milan +145 Home ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Fiorentina +205 Away
Spread: Milan Pk -135 ; Fiorentina Pk +115
Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130
Analysis and Prediction:
After watching that Fiorentina vs Lazio match, and seeing a 1 – 0 score turn in to 3 – 1 with three extra time goals, I am simply going to again suggest this total.
At +110, why wouldn’t we see the three goals we will need to cash the ticket?
I think it will work out just fine, so that right there is simple analysis just from how that all went down.
Granted Roma and Milan couldn’t find that third goal in their 1 – 1 affair, but I see goals here, so grab the Over 2.5 at +110.
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona
3-Way: 1: Roma -270 Home ; X: +400 Draw ; 2: Verona +800 Away
Spread: Roma -1.5 +110 ; Verona +1.5 -130
Total 2.5: Over -135 ; Under +115
Analysis and Prediction:
It is hard to believe that Verona went completely win-less through the entire first half of the season, and now the goal is obviously to try to stay in the league past this year.
Luca Toni returned last week in the loss to Genoa, but Silagardi missed the last match and is questionable.
I see goals in this contest as well, so I am hoping that we can shift this total to a straight 3 and get a much better payout.
I see +125 at Pinnacle, so I would imagine when 365 or Bwin puts it out, that they will follow suit and offer a decent price on the line move.
Take the Over 3 at +125.
Bologna vs Lazio
3-Way: 1: Bologna +275 Home ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Lazio +115 Away
Spread: Bologna +0.5 -135 ; Lazio -0.5 +115
Total 2: Over -130 ; Under +110
Analysis and Prediction:
Has Lazio actually won back-to-back away outings?
Hold on, let me pinch myself and get back to everyone!
Ouch, so okay that answer is yes apparently.
Again, as all of you who follow me know that we are accustomed to fading Lazio when they leave Rome, and now they have a two-match away win streak.
Shocking!
Well, sit down kids, because I cannot believe I am about to say this.
Lazio is going to win three straight away matches.
I know, it actually took me a few minutes to stare at that sentence and decide if I am losing my marbles or not.
Of course, offering the play might bring their run to an end, because my faith in Lazio is not all that strong. But at +115, and having Bologna on the other side of the pitch, this might just actually happen. Play it small please, because my goodness Lazio on the road… still scary!
Carpi vs Sampdoria
3-Way: 1: Carpi +185 Home ; X:+215 Draw ; 2: Sampdoria +170 Away
Spread: Carpi Pk -105 ; Sampdoria Pk -115
Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +115
Analysis and Prediction:
Do not even think about paying for the Over 2 at -135. This is another situation where boosting the line is a good thing to do.
The Over 2 & 2.5 handicap line comes in at even money, so even if they do get stuck on the two goals, a half loss is not going to do much damage to our situation. I love these types of bets, and offer them whenever there is a decent line attached to it, and this is one of those situations.
Genoa vs Palermo
3-Way: 1: Genoa -125 Home ; X: +250 Draw ; 2: Palermo +400 Away
Spread: Genoa -0.5 -125 ; Palermo +0.5 +105
Total 2.5: Over +115 ; Under -135
Analysis and Prediction:
Since the turn of the century, Palermo has played Genoa 10 times and has not won a single outing.
In fact, through the last 21 contests between the two, only once has the away side taken all three points.
Obviously, the line setters see Genoa as the club expected to keep that trend alive, listing the home side at -125.
Palermo took the first meeting at Renzo Barbera with a 1 – 0 result, but Genoa was a different squad than they are now, obviously being without Perin to start the campaign in net.
Genoa has lost their last three home matches, however, and nothing is really going all that well for either side, so I am going to suggest the +0.5 handicap with Palermo at +105.
I see a draw coming to fruition here, but I do not like suggesting draws because that is extremely difficult to do, at least in my opinion.
Udinese vs Juventus
3-Way: 1: Udinese +550 Home ; X: +290 Draw ; 2: Juventus -170 Away
Spread: Udinese +1 -120 ; Juventus -1 +100
Total 2.5: Over +120 ; Under -140
Analysis and Prediction:
Juventus is just two points out of the top spot, and that will officially mean that all that early season crap they went through is behind them.
Losing Pirlo, Tevez, and Vidal was expected to take some time to adjust to, and those adjustments are now working out nicely.
Not to mention, Gigi Buffon is um, pretty good last we heard. Ya think?
Hard to not appreciate what he does, although he was beat pretty bad last time out by Cassano. It is not too often we see Gigi Buffon simply unable to react to a ball on net, and he just stood there and watched Cassano’s ball hit the back of the net.
The Juve -1 handcap has got to be my final suggestion for the Serie A weekend, and at +100, I am more than content if we see another 2 – 1 type of win for the four-time consecutive Scudetto holders.
In Bocca Al Lupo everyone!
