The Oakland Golden Grizzlies (18-13, 10-8 Hor) take on the IUPUI Jaguars (11-18, 8-10 Hor) in the Horizon Conference Tourney at Little Caesars Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 4, 2018, and will air on ESPN 3.
Oakland opened as a 6.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 149 points.
IUPUI Jaguars vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies Betting Prediction
In the Jaguars’ last matchup, they were dismantled by the Northern Kentucky Norse, 75-56. Northern Kentucky’s 0.588 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over IUPUI, who had a rate of 0.377. The Norse’s mark was above their season average of 0.550, while the Jaguars’ was below their season average of 0.492. T.J. Henderson led IUPUI in scoring with 14 points on 4-for-11 shooting.
The Golden Grizzlies won a close one over the Milwaukee Panthers in their last outing, 72-70. Oakland’s 0.260 free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Milwaukee, who had a rate of 0.133. The Golden Grizzlies’ mark was below their season average of 0.280, while the Panthers’ was below their season average of 0.190. Kendrick Nunn was the game’s high scorer with 37 points on 12-for-23 shooting.
The aggressive Oakland offense might be getting to the foul line a lot in this matchup. The Golden Grizzlies rank 51st in the NCAA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.279, while IUPUI is among the nation’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 300th-ranked FTA rate of 0.283).
IUPUI holds records of 11-18 straight up (SU) and 12-15 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total high when the Jaguars are involved, as 63.0 percent of their games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Oakland is 18-13 SU and 8-20 ATS. Golden Grizzlies games also have typically finished under the projected point total (57.1 percent).
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Jaguars won the most recent matchup 74-67, covering as 5.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 141 points, which was just 5 points below the projected point total of 146 points. IUPUI had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.526 vs. 0.409). Oakland, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (35.4 vs. 27.3). Nunn scored a game-high 29 points.
IUPUI Jaguars vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies ATS Pick
Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Oakland, ATS Winner – IUPUI, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Oakland ranks 11th in assists per game (17.2) while IUPUI ranks 191st (12.8).
The Golden Grizzlies rank 23rd in blocks per game (4.9) while the Jaguars rank 169th in blocks allowed per game (4.0).
IUPUI averages 6.9 steals per game, which ranks 72nd in the NCAA. Oakland ranks 199th in steals allowed per game (7.5).
The Golden Grizzlies rank 39th in three pointers allowed per game (19.4) while the Jaguars rank 75th (20.3).
Oakland ranks 98th in rebounds per game (36.4) while IUPUI ranks 120th in rebounds allowed per game (34.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, IUPUI is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Oakland is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Jaguars’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 4.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Golden Grizzlies have scored an average of 76.8 points per game (3.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 76.2 points per game (1.8 below their season average).
