The No.3-seeded Jackson State Tigers take on the No.6-seeded Prairie View A&M Panthers in the second round of the SWAC tournament at the Toyota Center. The game gets underway at 3:30 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 10.
The Tigers are expecting a better outcome after their 54-51 loss to Alabama A&M the last time they played. Raeford Worsham had a good outing for Jackson State, putting up 12 points, seven rebounds, and four steals. The Panthers, meanwhile, are coming off a 79-71 win over Southern in their last game. Ja’Donta Blakely had a solid game for Prairie View A&M, posting 18 points, nine rebounds, and three steals.
Over the last five games, Jayrn Johnson has been on fire for the Panthers. During that stretch, he has averaged 21.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.4 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 3.2 three-pointers.
The Jackson State defense could make it difficult on Prairie View A&M’s shooters. It ranks sixth in the nation in forcing misses (opponents’ eFG% of 45.0%), while the Prairie View A&M offense is 351st with a mark of 42.0%. Furthermore, the 349th-ranked offense of the Panthers (offensive efficiency of 89.0) will face a tough test against the seventh-ranked defense of the Tigers (defensive efficiency of 95.3).
The Tigers have emerged victorious in both matchups against the Panthers this year, escaping with a narrow 80-66 victory the last time these teams met. Yettra Specks had a stellar game with 23 points, one rebound, four assists, and three three-pointers.
While the Tigers are 17-14 Straight Up (SU), they’ve fallen short Against The Spread (ATS) all year with a 0-1 record. The Tigers have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 40th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 39.4 per game, while the Panthers rank 328th in the nation with 32.0 per game. Jackson State’s defense can be considered one of the best in the country. The Tigers allow a .394 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the country.
On the other side, the Panthers are perfect ATS with a 3-0 record to go along with a 7-23 SU record. The Prairie View A&M defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only 5.0 field goals from three-point range per game.
With the Tigers’ last win against Prairie View A&M, Jackson State is still behind in the head-to-head record over their most recent meetings, 3-7 SU. The Panthers also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 3-0. Jackson State had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) three times over the last five games. Prairie View A&M has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – JkSt, ATS Winner – JkSt
Notes
The Prairie View A&M Panthers have a defensive rating of 104.4 (ranked 68th), while the Jackson State Tigers have an offensive rating of 99.6 (ranked 288th).
On average, Jackson State has 68.8 possessions per game and scores .996 points on each possession. Prairie View A&M has both fewer possessions (68.2) and scores fewer points during those possessions (.890).
Jackson State has an average effective field goal percentage of 46.4%. Prairie View A&M is an abysmal 2-21 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Jackson State, the 40th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 39.4 rebounds per game. Prairie View A&M does worse, ranked 328th with 32.0.
The Jackson State Tigers average 8.0 steals per game (ranked 24th). The Prairie View A&M Panthers have a poor record of 5-14 when they allow at least 7 steals.
