In their final game of the regular season, the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars play at NRG Stadium in an AFC South Week 17 matchup. A player to keep an eye on during this game is NFL’s fourth-leading rusher, Foster (1,223 yards, 8 TDs). It will begin Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
The Week 14 matchup between the Texans and the Jaguars ended in a 27-13 loss for Jacksonville. Foster had an outstanding performance running the ball in that game, rushing for 127 yards and one TD on 24 carries. McCray led the Jacksonville defense, registering six tackles.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at 40 points and the Jaguars are a clear 10-point underdog. The Texans enter the game with records of 8-7 Straight Up (SU) and 9-5-1 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Over their last five games, the Texans have records of 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. They should be excited to have the Jaguars and their sixth-ranked scoring defense come into town. Their Swiss cheese defense gives up an average of 25.9 points per game. Judging from past games this season, expect to see a heavy dose of the Houston run game, which currently ranks fourth in the NFL with 136.1 rushing yards per game. Averaging a league-worst 15.5 points per game, Jacksonville doesn’t pose much of a threat to the Texans defense on paper. Houston’s front seven will be licking its chops against the Jaguars and their struggling run game this season. Jacksonville averages just 78.6 yards per road game on the ground, ranking 26th in the NFL. An important aspect of the game will be if the Jaguars can fend off Houston’s ability to take the ball away. The Texans currently rank first in the league with 2.3 turnovers per game. The Texans hope to continue the trend of torching Jacksonville’s defense during the second quarter, when they allow 9.4 points per game. The Texans should have no trouble winning the time of possession battle this week. Jacksonville averages a time of only 28:39 per game, ranking them 27th in the NFL.
Across the field, the Jaguars have a record of 5-9-1 ATS and 3-12 SU. The Jaguars went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. Houston will be matching up against a stout Jaguars defense which has been playing better. They only allow 21 PPG over their last five matchups, well below their season average of 25.9. It shouldn’t be too hard for the Jaguars to start fast this week with Houston’s defense allowing 5.4 points in the first quarter of home games. Houston’s weak special teams might open the door to opportunity for the Jaguars this week. The Texans give up an average of 108 return yards during home games, ranking 28th in the NFL this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU, O/U – Under
Notes
Houston is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games.
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Houston is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games.
Houston is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home.
Houston is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home.
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games when playing Jacksonville.
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 2-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Houston is 8-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
This season, Houston is only 1-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Houston passing attack is ranked only 26th in the league, while the Jacksonville pass defense is ranked 20th. The Jaguars’ passing game is ranked just 30th, compared to the 24th-ranked pass defense of the Texans.
Jacksonville has allowed 28.6 points per game on the road, which is ranked only 28th in the league. Houston has put up 24.6 points per game at home (ranked 13th overall).
