In the final week of the NFL regular season, the Texans (-8) are set to welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to Houston. Fans can catch the action live on CBS and kickoff for this AFC South showdown is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Betting Preview
Jacksonville is getting picked as the underdog and is currently getting 8 points in this AFC game. The Jaguars are also receiving +260 moneyline odds while the Texans are -330. If one team can get out in front early it will produce a worthwhile live betting scenario. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points.
The total has not changed after it was set initially at 40.5. Having said that, the opening line was -9 and sharp bettors have been siding with the Jaguars.
The disappointing Jaguars are 5-8-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 11.2 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 6-9. The Texans are up 2.6 units this season. The team is 6-6-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-8.
The Jaguars are only 5-10 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against AFC South opponents. The Texans are 10-5 SU overall and 3-2 SU against divisional foes.
The Jaguars are coming off a 17-7 victory over Miami last week. the Jaguars completed 17-of-24 passes for 145 yards. Cody Kessler went 12-for-17 for 106 yards while Blake Bortles completed five-of-six for 39 yards. Leonard Fournette (just 43 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Dede Westbrook (seven receptions, 45 yards) and Donte Moncrief (four catches, 43 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Houston narrowly lost a 32-30 game to Philadelphia in Week 16. Deshaun Watson completed 29-of-40 passes for 339 yards and two touchdowns. Watson (49 rushing yards on eight attempts, two TDs) mounted the running game while DeAndre Hopkins (nine receptions, 104 yards) and DeAndre Carter (six catches, 61 yards) led the Houston pass-catchers in the loss.
Jacksonville’s run the ball on 44.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has a rush percentage of 48.2 percent. The Jaguars have rushed for 113 yards per game (including 77 per game versus South opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Texans are averaging 126 rush yards per game (156 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
The Jags offensive scheme has logged 222 yards/contest through the air overall (217 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Texans have put up 262 pass yards per contest (260.2 in the AFC) and have 26 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Jacksonville should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 116 rush yards and 208 pass yards per game. The Houston D has allowed 291.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 86.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Jags are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.56 to opponents, while the Texans have given up a 6.61 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Kessler is up to 652 yards this year, and has completed 76-of-114 attempts with two passing scores and one interception. Kessler has a 4.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 1.33 over the past two outings.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from Jacksonville in this one. Leonard Fournette (393 rushing yards, five rush TDs, 167 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Dede Westbrook (686 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Cody Kessler (55 rush yards, 0 receiving yards) have each played big roles of late.
Deshaun Watson has connected on 298-of-442 passes for 3,637 yards, 24 TDs and nine INTs for Houston. His ANY/A stands at 6.93 for the season and 8.05 across his last two games.
Look for Watson to spread the ball around early and often in this one. DeAndre Hopkins (1,255 receiving yards and nine receiving TDs this season), DeAndre Carter (128 receiving yards), and Demaryius Thomas (618 receiving yards, five TDs) have collectively recorded 486 receiving yards and two scores over the last two games, recording 23, 10, and 13 targets respectively over that stretch.
RELATED: Week 17 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: Jaguars vs. Texans
SU Winner – Texans, ATS Winner – Texans, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Houston defense has sacked opposing QBs 40 times this year. Jacksonville has registered just 31 sacks.
The Houston offense has lost six fumbles this season while Jacksonville has lost 15.
The Jaguars offense has tallied three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Texans have put up seven such plays.
The Jacksonville defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Houston has given up 12 such plays.
The Jacksonville offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Houston has created eight such runs.
The Jaguars defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Texans have given up three such runs.
The O/U for Houston’s previous match was 47. The over cashed in the 32-30 loss to Philadelphia.
In its last three matches, Houston is 0-1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, Jacksonville is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Jacksonville’s previous game was set at 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-7 win over Miami.
Jacksonville has averaged 4.6 yards per carry across its last three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
Houston has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.0 over its last two.
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