The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts wrap up their inconspicuous seasons on Sunday. Neither team will be going to the playoffs. While that’s not a huge surprise for the Jaguars, it is a mild surprise for the Colts. They have won just seven games and struggled to beat any team that would be considered elite.
As for the Jaguars, they have just three wins this season. They’ve already fired their head coach (Gus Bradley) and they’re just playing out the string. However, they played very well in their first game under Doug Marrone – particularly Blake Bortles – and they’re try to end the season with a little momentum. Interestingly enough, two of their last four wins have come against the Colts.
Moneyline: Colts -210
Handicap/Spread Odds: Colts -4
Total O/U: 47
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 10/2/2016 | IND 27 – JAC 30 | JAC 1 | O 48 |
| 12/13/2015 | IND 16 – JAC 51 | JAC -1 | O 45.5 |
| 10/4/2015 | JAC 13 – IND 16 x | JAC 4 | U 43 |
| 11/23/2014 | JAC 3 – IND 23 | IND -13 | U 49 |
| 9/21/2014 | IND 44 – JAC 17 | IND -6 | O 45.5 |
On The Jaguars Side of the Ball (3-12 Record, 7-8 ATS)
The Jaguars got a big boost from the firing of Bradley as they came out like a completely different team facing the Tennessee Titans last week. Bortles, who was a train wreck under Bradley this season, had one of his best games. He finished 26-of-38 for 325 yards and a touchdown. The 68.4 completion percentage was his highest in any game this season and the 325 passing yards were his third-highest. Star receiver Allen Robinson came to life with nine grabs for 147 yards and a touchdown. The former Pro Bowler was basically a non-factor this season up until last week.
If the Jags play with that same type of fervor, there is no reason why they can’t beat the Colts – a team that they’ve bizarrely had some success against recently. They’ll probably struggle to run the ball with so many injuries at the running back position but if Bortles is effective, they’ll have a chance to win.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | TEN | W 38-17 | W 4 | O 44 |
| 12/18/2016 | @HOU | L 20-21 | W 3.5 | O 39.5 |
| 12/11/2016 | MIN | L 16-25 | L 3 | O 38 |
| 12/4/2016 | DEN | L 10-20 | L 3.5 | U 38.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | @BUF | L 21-28 | W 8.5 | O 43.5 |
On The Colts Side of the Ball (7-8 Record, 7-7-1 ATS)
The Colts flopped last week in Oakland, which essentially laid their playoff hopes to rest. The defense was again a disaster as they coughed up 33 points to the Raiders. Oakland lost star quarterback Derek Carr midway through the game, yet the Colts had dug themselves such a large hole that they couldn’t get out of it.
The Colts are just such a hard team to trust from week to week. They’ve won two of their last four games and in those wins, they’ve averaged 37.5 points per game while holding their opponents to 8.0 points per outing. In the losses, they’ve allowed 27.5 points per game while scoring just 21 points per contest themselves. It’s really hard to gauge what this team will do – especially with nothing to play for.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | @OAK | L 25-33 | L 3.5 | O 52 |
| 12/18/2016 | @MIN | W 34-6 | W 5 | U 44.5 |
| 12/11/2016 | HOU | L 17-22 | L -6.5 | U 47.5 |
| 12/5/2016 | @NYJ | W 41-10 | W 1 | O 48.5 |
| 11/24/2016 | PIT | L 7-28 | L 8 | U 50 |
Quick Analysis
Both teams have not been great against the spread this season as they’ve covered just about as much as they’ve failed to do so. Of note, Jacksonville has covered three straight meetings between the sides.
Prediction
Indy is at home in this one but that might not be such a huge advantage. They’ve lost three of their last four at home. On top of that, facing the Jags hasn’t been such a gimme for them – even though so many other teams have no problems with them. For some reason, the Colts bring the best out of the Jags.
Given how confident the Jags looked in their first week under Marrone, it’s worth banking on that we’ll see the same. Bortles looked crisp, the defense was flying around and the Jags were rolling the Tennessee Titans – it wasn’t even a close game. Now they’ll face a team with less talent that they’ve had plenty of success against in their worst of times. It makes sense to take them with the points in this spot.
Pick: Jags +4
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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