James Harden is the best one-on-one player in the NBA. He is leading the league in scoring. He has been on a tear since Chris Paul went down. And now ….
He is the new favorite to win the Most Valuable Player Award.
Get this: It has been 13 games since Harden scored fewer than 30 points. He has had one 50-point game, six 40-point games, and five 30-point games since going for 29 against Portland on Dec. 11. His buzzer-beater in overtime Saturday night against Golden State is worth watching again.
In January, Harden has re-defined the term “high-volume shooter.” He put up 35 attempts in a loss to Portland on Saturday night, and 32 in Thursday night’s TNT epic against Golden State. Included among those 67 field goal attempts were 40 3-point shots.
With LeBron James injured and Nikola Jokic mostly available to those who subscribe to NBA League Pass, Harden has become the NBA’s top must-see player as the calendar has turned to 2019. He will go up against Jokic and the Denver Nuggets tonight, and the Rockets are favored by 1 point against the team sitting atop the Western Conference.
The over/under on Harden’s points is 37 1/2.
For most of the season, Giannis Antetokoumnpo has been atop the MVP odds race, and with good reason. Milwaukee has the second-best record in the East, Kawhi Leonard has been sitting out the second night of back-to-backs, and perennial MVP contender LeBron James is now sidelined with a groin injury that has put the Lakers into a freefall.
Harden’s odds have almost been cut in half after reaching a high of (10/1) at the start of December.
Here is what the board looks like today:
Let’s have a look at the other contenders:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+450): The Greek SuperFreak has not slowed down in terms of producing highlight-reel material, but what might have left him as the favorite would have been a victory at Toronto on Saturday night when he went off for 43 points but the Bucks failed to sweep the season series. Winning the East may get him this award. Finishing 2nd or 3rd would pull some votes away from him.
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers (5-1): Let’s face it, we are not used to watching LeBron cheer from the bench in street clothes while sitting out with an injury. Dude played all 82 for the Cavaliers last year. The longer he sits, the worse the Lakers get. But again, once he returns and the Lakers figure out what they are going to do at the Feb. 7 trade deadline, a late-season charge is not out of the question. Bookies pockets are lined with Benjamins who bet against The King.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans (+750): He plays for the 14th best team in the West, which is not going to get him any first-place votes. I am hearing more and more that his time with the Pelicans is coming to a close, but until Davis himself says something publicly to push for a change of scenery, he will remain in NOLA.
Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors (10-1): The more this season progresses, the more you hear people saying that they feel more strongly than they did before that he will re-sign with the Raptors long-term. I remain skeptical because he gave up a chance for a supermax contract my forcing his way out of San Antonio, and the L.A. Clippers have him targeted as their No. 1 free agent target. But as for his MVP chances, staying atop the East and playiong in back-to-backs will help him. Not a bad bet at 10-1.
Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors (12-1): Among many voters, they cancel each other out. Also, the Dubs are three games behind the Nuggets in the loss column. They remain the team to beat in the West for obvious reasons, but there is little to no argument to be made for elevating one of these two guys over the other in terms of MVP candidacy.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (15-1): The first thing the Sixers need to figure out is whether the Brett Brown thin-ice thing is going to thicken. He has lost the support of some key voices in the locker room. Also, Philly’s cupcake schedule ends soon, and what they face from mid-January to mid-February is brutal. If they come through that stretch (detailed in this column from Saturday night) looking good, Embiid could rise from the pack.
Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder (25-1): This guy was not even on the MVP boared a couple of weeks ago, but his recent surge has put him right into the mix, and the 25-1 odds are actually quite inviting. OKC had won three in a row before a hiccup against Washington on Sunday, and George has scored 30 or more points in 10 of his last 17 games, including performances of 47 at Brooklyn and back-to-back 43s against Sacramento and Utah.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (30-1): He leads the league in assists, steals and triple-doubles (12), and he enters Tuesday night’s game against Minnesota averaging a triple-double as he did each of the past two seasons. A ton of sharp money was placed on the Thunder over the summer when their over/under win total came out, and they could very well finish atop the conference. But would George’s success draw votes away? Sort of the same thing as the Durant/Curry thing in Golden State.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (50-1): His odds have dropped from 100-1 in the offseason to 60-1 recently to 50-1 in the latest update. It is still a worthy bet. If the Nuggets win the West and people start paying more attention to the Serbian point-center who is mesmerizing to watch, he will be a Top 3 contender despite his team’s lack of national attention. Still a good value bet.
Good luck!
