Betting on the NBA award winners can be a fun way to follow the season. It can also be immensely profitable if you know what you’re doing. You don’t want to bet too early and watch your wager gets flushed with an early season injury, but you also don’t want to wait until the season’s end, or you’ll lose too much value. The hard part is obviously the waiting, so arm yourself with patience and ask yourself if betting on James Harden to win the NBA MVP award this season is worth the hassle.
If you are not sure about the answer, we’ll try and make a case in this article. The timing is right, and if the option is valuable, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t look up for the odds at your favorite sportsbook.
Prices for Prizes
October 2017. Six players were set as the premier contenders for the NBA MVP Award, from Kawhi Leonard’s +350 to Steph Curry at +950. Kyrie Irving, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis – those three were even outside of the group. It was believed that it’ll be a close race, similar to the previous year when it took a hard media campaign to push Russell Westbrook in front.
It’s only beginning of the March, but only one candidate has appeared on the radars – James Harden. The Rockets superstar guard was placed behind Leonard, LeBron James and former teammate Kevin Durant, and tied with the reigning MVP Westbrook at +750 odds to win.
Fast forward to March and the picture is much different. Harden is now an undisputed -290 favorite to win the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, with bookies giving some last-hurrah chances to James (+275). Antetokounmpo at +1400, Curry, Irving and Durant at +2200 and Anthony Davis at +2500 and Harden’s running partner Chris Paul at +3300 are almost esoteric options for the bettors who are eager to bet the underdog.
Why Harden?
First of all, Harden was among the three finalists for the NBA MVP Award last season as well, and it wouldn’t be unfair if he had won it. He has been developing his game for some time, and although he mostly plays one way, his defensive deficiencies have been better masked in the last two years. After all, NBA lives in the age of offense, and Harden is among the leaders of the entire movement.
Stats wise, his case is rock solid. He leads all scorers with 31.2 points per game on solid shooting efficiency – especially when you consider that he creates his own shot most of the time – and he’s among the league leaders in assists once again, with 8.9 dimes per night. While the assists and rebounds are down from the last year, so are the turnovers. Unlike Westbrook, Harden doesn’t pad just the stats sheets, he’s dominating on the court. And if the voters believe that the award should go to a special player, Harden fits the bill with his historic 60-point triple-double this season.
The Houston Rockets are winning. Harden’s team is league-best 49-13 at the moment, and while the top record was never a prerequisite for this award, it certainly can’t hurt him. He had shouldered the load in Paul’s absence, helped his seamless transition into the squad, and maintained his alpha status without hurting the team. Out of the seven games he was forced to miss with an injury, the Rockets lost three. When Harden, Paul, and Capela are all healthy and playing, the Rockets lost just once the entire season!
Harden has the style, too. He’s widely recognized with the overgrown beard, cooking celebrations and sick crossover step-back three. He’s at his prime, enjoying the NBA, and a role model of building his career gradually. This might not play a large role in the decision, but it’s still worth noting.
Basketball reference model shows that Harden has a 68.7 percent of probability of getting the most NBA MVP votes, while no other player is in double figures. Curry is the closest follower with 8.4 percent. Paul, Durant, and James follow. That’s another reason why we feel the race is over – nobody but Harden has a case. Curry and Durant are in each other’s way, and Paul is still the second fiddle in Houston. James is statistically fantastic, but the Cavs are a mess. Boston and Toronto did it with a team approach, and sadly, Leonard played just 9 games all season.
So, even with the current value negative compared to the perceived probability, -290 is actually a deal worth taking. The final month can impact the perspective only in close calls (or at least, much closer than this one), so go ahead and make this wager. You’ll wait for the return this June, but you can thank us then.
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