The Elon Phoenix (14-16, 6-11 CAA) and James Madison Dukes (9-21, 5-12 CAA) finish out the regular season when they face off at Alumni Gym. The game is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, February 26, 2018.
Elon opened as a 3-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 142.5 points.
James Madison Dukes at Elon Phoenix ATS Prediction
The Dukes are hoping for a better outcome after their 68-66 loss to the Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens in their last contest. Delaware’s free throw rate was their largest strength over James Madison. The Fightin’ Blue Hens had a rate of 0.208 (below their season average of 0.224), while the Dukes posted a mark of 0.095 (below their season average of 0.255). James Madison’s Darius Banks played well, recording 20 points and six rebounds.
The last time the Phoenix played, they got blown out by the Northeastern Huskies, 81-59. Making free throws was one of Northeastern’s biggest advantages. They were 16-18 (88.9 percent), while the Phoenix were 9-11 (81.8 percent). With 13 points on 5-for-10 shooting, Brian Dawkins was Elon’s leading scorer.
James Madison may have trouble getting to the foul line in this showdown. The Dukes currently rank 130th in the NCAA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.249, while Elon ranks first in FTA rate allowed (0.146).
James Madison heads into the contest with records of 9-21 straight up (SU) and 14-13-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Dukes are involved, as 57.1 percent of their games have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Elon is 14-16 SU and 8-18 ATS. Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Phoenix games, with 14 overs compared to 12 unders.
Matt Lewis has averaged 20.2 points over the last five games for James Madison.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Dainan Swoope put up 20 points and eight rebounds in the first matchup, in which the Phoenix lost 85-74, unable to cover as 1-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 159 points, which was 14.5 points above the projected point total of 144.5 points. The Dukes had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (24.3 vs. 13.2) and had a much better free throw rate (0.302 vs. 0.183).
James Madison Dukes at Elon Phoenix Pick
Free Basketball Tip: SU Winner – James Madison, ATS Winner – James Madison, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, James Madison is 9-5-1 ATS with 8 overs and 7 unders.
At home, Elon is 5-5 ATS with 5 overs and 5 unders.
James Madison ranks 52nd in steals per game (7.3) while Elon ranks 236th (4.4).
The Phoenix rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (30.0) while the Dukes rank 159th (21.6).
Elon ranks 53rd in assists per game (15.6) while James Madison ranks 191st in assists allowed per game (14.3).
The Dukes rank 140th in rebounds per game (35.6) while the Phoenix rank 272nd in rebounds allowed per game (38.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, James Madison is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Elon is 0-5 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Dukes’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.4, up from 2.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Phoenix have scored an average of 57.0 points per game (15.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 77.2 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
