NBA Preview: The undefeated Los Angeles Clippers host the Utah Jazz, the team who knocked them out of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs last year in seven games.
Utah Jazz (2-1) at Los Angeles Clippers (2-0), Tuesday, 10:30 p.m. EST
Estimated Line: Clippers -5. Estimated Total: 198.5.
No line as of now. I suppose Rodney Hood being questionable is enough to take the line down. Hood is questionable with a calf injury.
The Clippers lost some veterans from last year and replaced them with a different set of veterans for this season. Exit Chris Paul, JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford, Luc Mbah a Moute, Raymond Felton and enter Danilo Gallinari, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Milos Teodosic and Wesley Johnson.
From a handicapping perspective, this game presents an interesting matchup for the game total. The Clippers rank #3 in points scored, #4 in Pace and #1 in points allowed per game. The Jazz rank #22 in points scored, now rank #30 in pace (just behind Sacramento) and #4 in points allowed per game.
If you just look at the points scored rankings, the Clippers averaging 119 points per game would seem to indicate a fast-paced team. Their pace number backs up that assertion because the Clips rank #4 in pace. However, it is difficult to determine what the Clippers true pace is as a team. The Clips have played the Lakers and the Suns, who rank #1 and #3 respectively.
So the question is: Are the Clippers truly a fast-paced team this season? Answer: Way too soon to tell.
Utah has faced three opponents, Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Denver, ranked #16, #19 and #28 in pace, respectively. However, Utah does not have a pace ranking somewhere in the middle of those numbers, the pace for the Jazz is dead last in the league at #30.
This tells me that the Jazz are in fact a team that will have a low pace number for the season, even after just three games. Which is no surprise because Utah finished the 2016-17 season at #30.
Utah is clearly a slow-paced team. The Clippers’ pace for this squad is still an unknown to me. So I will definitely pick this game to go under the Vegas total when it is released.
NBA Fantasy Information
Players to look at: Ricky Rubio (Jazz), PG, $7500. Rubio is averaging 34.2 fantasy points per game early in the season. So Rubio would seem to be a decent pick at that price. However, Rubio averaged just 28 fantasy points per game against the Clips in four games last season while playing for the Timberwolves.
Patrick Beverley (Clippers), PG, $6000. Beverley is averaging 28.3 fantasy points per game this season. He definitely has some value at his price. However, there may be better options on the board since Beverley is playing Utah.
Lou Williams (Clippers) SG, $5500. Williams is averaging 29.1 fantasy points per game. He clearly has value at that price. He averaged 32.5 fantasy points per game against Utah last season playing for the Lakers.
Joe Ingles (Jazz), SF, $5000. Ingles is averaging 30.2 fantasy points per game this season. Obviously, he has a ton of value at his price and is a play.
Blake Griffin (Clippers), PF, $10,200. Griffin is averaging 48.8 fantasy points per game this season. He only averaged about 36.5 fantasy points per game last season. However, this year the Clippers offense will run more through Griffin with the departure of Chris Paul, so Griffin will get more touches and shots.
Edit: 6:55 p.m. EST: I have two plays tonight and will edit the plays with reasoning in a few minutes.
Orlando Magic -4.5, laying $110 to win $100 – Aaron Gordon is back and more importantly for me, this is a quick-revenge spot for the Magic. The Nets defeated Orlando 126-121 in Brooklyn four days ago. So the default pick in my handicapping book is to go with Orlando in this spot. I do not like the fact that the line is low enough to “draw me into” an Orlando play. However, sometimes you have to ignore the nuances of the Vegas line or the perceived nuances that you may think are built into the line.
In this instance, I am simply going with my default play and gladly taking what I think is a bit of a bargain with the 4.5 point line.
Los Angeles Clippers -4.5, laying $110 to win $100 – This is another game with a default play. Utah knocked the Clippers out of the playoffs last year in the first round of the Western Conference. Tonight is their first meeting of the season since the Jazz eliminated Los Angeles last year. So we have a revenge spot for the playoff elimination from a season ago. Rodney Hood is questionable for Utah. The Clippers are playing their third straight game at Staples Arena to start the season. Utah is off to a good start, but I cannot stay away from this default play on the Clips.
Good Luck.
Picks:
Sides: (1) Orl, (2) LAC, (3) NO, (4) Cle, (5) Bos, (6) Ind
Totals: (1) LAC un, (2) Orl ov, (3) NO ov, (4) Cle un, (5) Ind ov, (6) Bos ov
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