As the Seattle Seahawks continue their makeover, their latest loss, Jimmy Graham, has become the Green Bay Packers‘ latest gain.
Packers intend to sign TE Jimmy Graham to a three-year deal, sources tell ESPN.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2018
Graham obviously moves straight to the top of Green Bay’s depth chart after the Martellus Bennett debacle. The five-time Pro Bowl tight end will have fantasy owners salivating, and for good reason. Graham was the top free agent tight end available and one of the best receiving tight ends in the league. His role in the offense could very well return him to his dominant New Orleans days.
The issue with Graham is his decline in numbers over the last few years. Though he was a useful player, he was typically overdrafted and often inconsistent. These problems could certainly continue, even in a pass-happy offense like Green Bay’s.
Reasons to Get Excited
Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but there’s no comparison between the value of Seattle and Green Bay’s respective receivers. Aaron Rodgers’ top targets are going to outscore Wilson’s every time. That’s especially true given Green Bay’s other big move.
No More Jordy Nelson
When both Rodgers and Nelson were healthy in 2016, Nelson led the NFL with 14 touchdowns. Nelson missed 2015 with a torn ACL, but in 2014 he was tied for second in the NFL with 13 touchdowns. Now Nelson is gone and the Packers are going to need a new red zone weapon. For all of his faults, Graham is the perfect player to fill that void.
Graham in the Red Zone
Last year, Graham led the NFL in receiving touchdowns from inside the 20 (10) and was second in touchdowns inside the 10 (eight). He was seventh in red zone receiving yards and tied for second in red zone receptions. Davante Adams will get plenty of looks near the goal line, but Graham causes major matchup problems and ought to get his share of points. Without Nelson, Graham could become Rodgers’ new favorite red zone target.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Touchdown Reliant
Though Graham was tied for second in the NFL in touchdowns, the rest of his numbers were pedestrian. His 520 receiving yards ranked 81st and his 57 receptions were tied for 52nd. He failed to exceed 40 yards 10 times and only went over 60 twice. If he doesn’t become the apple of Aaron Rodger’s eye at the goal line, he could be in for a disappointing year.
Drops
Part of the reason why Graham’s numbers slipped is he tied for second in the league with seven drops. That’s more proof that he struggled outside of red zone targets. Should Graham’s problems catching the ball find their way into the end zone, his value will take a dive.
Green Bay Tight Ends
“Aaron Rodgers doesn’t really throw to tight ends, but he’s never had a tight end like this before!” You’ve probably heard that once or twice over the last decade, especially after Green Bay signed Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett. Still, the Packers haven’t had a top tight end in the Aaron Rodgers era. Richard Rodgers scored eight touchdowns in 2015 and Jermichael Finley went over 600 yards a few times. Those aren’t the type of numbers you want from an elite tight end, and judging by the early hype, Graham will fetch an elite draft position.
Conclusion
Graham has a high ceiling and he should be on everyone’s board. The problem is, there’s more than likely someone in your league willing to vastly overpay for him. Don’t be that guy. Check Graham’s ADP and snatch him up if he falls. Otherwise, the typical tight end advice applies: wait until everyone else has one before you get yours.
