It was clear that the Buffalo Bills would have to address their quarterback situation after trading Tyrod Taylor to the Browns in March. They didn’t wait long, opting to trade up and take Josh Allen of Wyoming with the seventh overall pick.
We’ve drafted Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick.
Welcome to Buffalo, @JoshAllenQB! pic.twitter.com/gLS319ZtTw
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) April 27, 2018
Allen is a polarizing player who many believe has the highest bust potential of any quarterback taken in the first round. Though he only completed 56 percent of his passes as a starter at Wyoming, he has prototypical measurables and athleticism that could make him a special player. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen in 2018.
Reasons to Get Excited
Arm
At 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds, Allen has the ideal size for his position. He also has a cannon arm that he put on display at Buffalo’s minicamp. A quarterback who can throw deep will have a puncher’s chance in fantasy (especially daily) due to the potential for long touchdowns. Allen can be a fantasy asset even if he struggles for most of the game.
Shady
Allen will be more than happy to share Buffalo’s backfield with LeSean McCoy. Both as a receiving threat and one of the best running backs in the league, McCoy will make Allen’s job easier. For fantasy purposes, having someone like McCoy available for short throws from an inexperienced quarterback is good for stat-padding.
Path to Playing Time
While the other teams who drafted quarterbacks in the first round have at least one veteran starter, the Bills opted to go with younger guys. The “veteran” of the group is AJ McCarron, who threw 133 passes in four years as Andy Dalton’s backup in Cincinnati. The only other quarterback on the roster is Nathan Peterman, who had a poor rookie season. Allen is the third quarterback right now, but he could easily be the starter by Week 1.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Receivers
Outside of McCoy, Allen won’t have many good receiving options. Kelvin Benjamin has done well in the past, but he wasn’t much of a factor with Buffalo last season and has some injury issues. Zay Jones struggled as a rookie and is recovering from knee surgery. Jeremy Kerley is a decent slot receiver but isn’t the type to elevate a quarterback. Buffalo’s starter shouldn’t expect much help from this group.
Competition
One would think that a player drafted seventh overall out of a smaller school like Wyoming would have dominated his competition on a weekly basis. Not so with Allen. In two of his team’s biggest conference games of the season (Boise State, Colorado State) he had anemic passing numbers. He also struggled in non-conference games, including blowout losses to Iowa and Oregon. His best stat line of the year (328 yards, two touchdowns) came against Gardner-Webb. It’s obviously not a great sign when a quarterback drafted seventh overall could only manage to put up 300 yards against a 1-10 FCS team.
Early-Season Schedule
Buffalo’s offensive line should take a step backward after the losses of Cordy Glenn, Eric Wood and Richie Incognito. If Allen does indeed win the starting job in training camp, it’s going to be a rough first month for him.
Wouldn't bet against it because teams react to feelings of urgency & almost always play high-drafted QBs early but #Bills throwing Josh Allen to the Week 1 wolves would be fascinating. Buffalo's first-month schedule:
Week 1: @ BAL
Week 2: vs LAC
Week 3: @ MIN
Week 4: @ GB— Evan Silva (@evansilva) June 21, 2018
He would be exposed to a host of negative outcomes, including potential injury, if this comes to pass. So, either the Bills play it safe and let McCarron or Peterman take those first starts, or throw Allen out there in a situation that probably won’t end well for him. Either way, you’ll want to stay far away from him for at least the first fourth of the season.
Conclusion
It makes sense for an NFL team to take a chance on Allen since there aren’t enough good quarterbacks to go around. It makes very little sense for your fantasy team to take a chance on him since there are plenty of good fantasy quarterbacks to go around. Sure, Allen is a must-own in dynasty leagues and could have some occasional DFS or best-ball appeal. But in redraft, stay away until he shows us something.
