Following Carson Palmer’s broken arm and subsequent retirement, the Arizona Cardinals were a popular landing spot for quarterbacks in the first round of mock drafts. They didn’t disappoint, trading up five spots to take UCLA’s Josh Rosen with the 10th overall pick.
Rosen will wear red
He used to rock blue
Those that wanted us to take @Josh3Rosen
Your dreams have come true. pic.twitter.com/5xjcC9wUom— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) April 27, 2018
Rosen’s skills were never in question, but some off-the-field issues contributed to him being the fourth quarterback selected. Though he has plenty of talent and a good situation, Rosen looks to be at least a year away from becoming relevant in redraft leagues.
Reasons to Get Excited
Weapons
Arizona’s starting quarterback will have two of the best targets in the league in Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, plus a new YAC threat in rookie Christian Kirk. Playmakers of their caliber will drastically lower the degree of difficulty for Rosen when he debuts.
Production
Sam Darnold may have been the first Pac-12 quarterback drafted, but Rosen had him beat in another area.
2017 Pac-12 Football – Total Yards per Game
1. Josh Rosen, UCLA, 332
2. Sam Darnold, USC, 301
3. Tyler Huntley, Utah, 294
4. Luke Falk, WSU, 287
5. Steven Montez, CU, 276
6. Manny Wilkins, ASU, 273
7. Khalil Tate, UA, 272
8. Ross Bowers, Cal, 241
9. Jake Browning, UW, 211 pic.twitter.com/5RiKez43Nv— SuperWest Sports (@SuperWestSports) June 25, 2018
Rosen had four 400-yard games in 2017, three of which went over 460. Had he not missed two games and much of another, he very well could have led the FBS in passing yards. Similar production in the NFL would be more than welcome in fantasy circles.
Talent
Scouts, Inc. (paywall) said Rosen is “the best pocket passer in the 2018 draft and is NFL ready.” He was similarly praised by Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. If the character concerns prove to be unfounded, Rosen could be the top quarterback in his class. That could make him worth using in 2018 if he makes it on the field.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Depth Chart
At the moment, Rosen finds himself behind two quarterbacks with starting experience. Sam Bradford is at the top of the depth chart at the moment and, despite the two apparently getting along famously, it’s likely to stay that way unless there’s an injury.
Also standing in Rosen’s way is the former Chicago and Tampa Bay starter, Mike Glennon. He’s more likely to replace an injured Bradford if the Cardinals are in contention. In other words, we may not see Rosen until midseason at the earliest.
Lack of Mobility
More than a few fantasy quarterbacks have made their way into fantasy lineups strictly due to their rushing ability. That’s not going to be the case with Rosen. In three years at UCLA, he had minus-154 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. There were only two games in his college career in which he rushed for more than 15 yards. He’ll have to earn his way strictly as a passer.
Jared Goff, another pocket passer, was the 12th-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2018. He threw for 3,804 yards and 28 touchdowns. Similar numbers would be record-setting for a rookie. And that’s assuming Rosen plays a full season, which is very unlikely. Without rushing appeal, he’s not even in the QB2 conversation at this point.
Relationship With Coaches
Several of Rosen’s scouting reports claim he was difficult to coach. This problem could be exacerbated by the demands of the NFL. He had the sort of turnover problems at UCLA (33 in 30 starts) that could lead to a benching, especially with other former starters on the roster. Furthermore, any issues with leadership could delay his first snaps as a starter, especially with the Cardinals installing a complex offense. He won’t help our fantasy teams if he doesn’t see the field.
Conclusion
The case could be made that Rosen is the top rookie quarterback in dynasty drafts. He’s immensely talented with an offensive coordinator (Mike McCoy) who has a history of succeeding with immensely talented throwers. There are just far too many obstacles blocking his path to playing time. He could surprise us all in the end, but there’s no reason to have Rosen on your redraft radar at this point.
