The Kansas City Chiefs (-4) are heading west to face their AFC West foe Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. This Monday Night game gets going at 8:15 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Betting Preview
Denver is the underdog in this AFC matchup and is currently getting 4 points. The Chiefs are also receiving -170 moneyline odds while the Broncos are +150. Multiple solid live betting opportunities should be unveiled during the showdown, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points.
Sharp bettors tend to be siding with the Broncos, as the line opened at 5. The total has not changed after it was initially set at 55.
The Chiefs are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.9 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U record of 3-0. The Broncos are up 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 0-2-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 1-2.
The Chiefs have gone 3-0 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 2-1 SU overall and also 1-0 SU against divisional foes.
The Chiefs are looking to stay unbeaten following a 38-27 victory over San Francisco last week. Patrick Mahomes completed 24-of-38 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Kareem Hunt (44 rushing yards on 18 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack in the win. Travis Kelce (eight receptions, 114 yards) and Sammy Watkins (five catches, 55 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
In Week 3, Baltimore got the victory against this Denver team by a score of 27-14. The Broncos defensive secondary allowed the Ravens to air it out for 277 yards. John Brown had a productive outing in the win, recording 86 yards on five catches for Baltimore. For Denver, Case Keenum completed 22-of-34 passes for 192 yards and one interception. Royce Freeman (53 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Booker (five receptions, 34 yards) and Demaryius Thomas (five catches, 63 yards) led the receiving attack.
Kansas City has run the ball on 46.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Denver has a rush percentage of 43.8 percent. The Chiefs have produced 103 rush yards per game (including 106 per game against West opponents) and have two touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Broncos are totaling 145 rushing yards per game (168 in conference) and have four total rush TDs.
If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Broncos ought to own the edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has produced 5.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Chiefs have ran for 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 5.2 YPC to opponents.
The Chiefs offensive scheme has logged 299 yards/contest in the air overall (256 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Broncos have recorded 248 pass yards per game (222.0 in the AFC) and have three total pass TDs.
Kansas City has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 111 yards and throw for 376 yards per game. The Denver defense has allowed 287.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 77.7 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.00 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs have given up an 8.18 ANY/A.
Offensively, Mahomes has amassed 570 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 60 percent of his 65 attempts with seven scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a pristine 10.34 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 11.72 over the last two outings.
In the other huddle, Case Keenum has connected on 47-of-73 passes for 521 yards, three TDs and four INTs. Keenum’s ANY/A sits at a less-than-spectacular 4.90 for the year and 4.11 across his last two outings.
NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
SU Winner – Chiefs, ATS Winner – Broncos, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Denver defensive unit has produced nine sacks on the year while Kansas City has six.
Denver has lost zero fumbles in 2018 while the Kansas City offense has lost one.
The Chiefs offense has tallied three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have accounted for one such play.
The Kansas City defense has allowed one pass play of 40+ yards, while Denver has given up three such plays.
Both teams have produced two rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Kansas City offense has recorded seven running plays of 10+ yards while Denver has accounted for 12 such plays.
The Chiefs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Broncos have given up one such run.
Denver was favored by 6 points in its last match and the Over/Under was 46.5. The under cashed and Denver failed to cover in the 27-14 loss to Baltimore.
In its last three games, Denver is 0-2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Kansas City was favored by 6 points in its last game and the O/U was 53. The over cashed and Kansas City covered in the 38-27 triumph over San Francisco.
As a team, Kansas City has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last two games.
Denver has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last two.
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