Joe Blanton (2-1, 3.14 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (5-5, 3.81 ERA) start in the third of a four-game series between the Kansas City Royals (45-32) and the Minnesota Twins (42-38) at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the last game 3-2 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jul. 4 and can be seen on FSN-KC and FOX.
Blanton is 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts against the Twins. Lorenzo Cain (.305, 47 Rs, 6 HRs, 34 RBIs, 16 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 3 for 4 with two runs, one RBI, and one stolen base. Pelfrey is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA when pitching against the Royals. He is up against a quality Kansas City offense which is hitting .269 this season. Torii Hunter (.270, 40 Rs, 12 HRs, 44 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Kansas City is a -159 favorite against Minnesota and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Royals have recorded an overall money line of +1,056 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 24-16. Kansas City has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Royals have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 3.1 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.2 runs per game. The Royals are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.2 per game. Kansas City strikes out the least of any team in the AL, with only 5.9 per game. As for the Kansas City defense and pitching staff, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score runs against the Royals. The 3.3 runs that Kansas City’s pitchers allow per home game makes them the top AL staff at home. The Royals are the fifth-best team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.0 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 35-30 record and an overall money line of +1,296. They are 16-16 as the underdog against AL Central rivals, and 19-19 SU. When it comes to issuing walks, the Twins have the fewest in the AL with only 2.4 walks allowed per game.
The Royals lead the season series, 7-4. The Royals have a great 16-9 record at home (32-19 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Pelfrey takes the mound. Blanton (RHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 24-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Twins lost by a margin of one run. The Royals are 9-7 in one-run games. The Twins have a 13-11 record in close games.
Minnesota has won 43% (12-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Kansas City has won 66% (19-10) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Royals are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Twins have a 9-21 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Royals are 3-26. The Twins have a 7-35 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, Kansas City ranks 28th with 57 homers and Minnesota is 24th with 64.
Ranking 10th, Minnesota is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.35 per game. Kansas City ranks in the top five at second with 9.16.
Ranking 20th, Minnesota is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.690). Kansas City ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .720.
The Twins are 23-26 when they allow at least one home run. The Royals perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with an 18-23 record.
