A low-scoring game should be expected when the Baylor Bears (12-7, 2-5 Big 12) and the Kansas State Wildcats (14-5, 4-3 Big 12) clash at Ferrell Center. The game will air on ESPNU at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 134 points with Baylor set as a 4.5-point favorite.
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Free Prediction
The Wildcats come in on a high note after defeating the No. 24 TCU Horned Frogs in their last matchup, 73-68. Kansas State’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over TCU. The Wildcats had a rate of 0.608 (above their season average of 0.558), while the Horned Frogs posted a mark of 0.500 (below their season average of 0.581). With 20 points on 7-for-16 shooting, Dean Wade was the top scorer from either team.
In the Bears’ last game, they lost a close one to the No. 10 Kansas Jayhawks, 70-67. One of Kansas’ biggest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They had 34 free throw attempts, while Baylor had 21. With 14 points and 12 rebounds, Baylor’s Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. put together a good game.
Baylor could dominate the offensive glass in this showdown. The Bears currently rank 26th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.2 percent), while Kansas State ranks 312th in defensive rebounding percentage (67.3 percent). Additionally, the sharp-shooting offense of the Wildcats ranks 29th in effective field goal percentage (0.561), while the Bears are 34th-best in the nation at effective field goal percentage allowed (0.465).
Kansas State is 14-5 straight up (SU), but they struggle covering the spread (7-9 against the spread (ATS)). Games involving the Wildcats have typically gone under the O/U total (62.5 percent).
Meanwhile, Baylor owns records of 12-7 SU and 7-5 ATS. Bears games also have typically gone under the total (75.0 percent).
Barry Brown has averaged 22.4 points, 3.2 assists and 2.8 steals over the last five games for Kansas State.
After the Wildcats won two out of three contests against the Bears last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the last game, Kansas State won 70-64. The Wildcats had a much better free throw rate (0.409 vs. 0.127) and had a better turnover percentage (15.2 vs. 17.6).
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Kansas State is 3-5 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 3 overs.
At home, Baylor is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Baylor ranks 31st in rebounds per game (39.6) while Kansas State ranks 282nd (31.2).
The Wildcats rank 20th in steals per game (8.2) while the Bears rank 188th (5.1).
Baylor ranks 25th in blocks per game (5.1) while Kansas State ranks 154th (2.7).
The Wildcats average 15.5 assists per game, which ranks 66th in the nation. The Bears rank 192nd in assists allowed per game (14.9).
Kansas State averages 21.8 three pointers per game, which ranks 149th in the nation. Baylor ranks 195th in three pointers allowed per game (23.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Kansas State is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Baylor is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Wildcats’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.0, down from 10.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bears have scored an average of 66.2 points per game (10.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 64.4 points per game (2.7 below their season average).
