The No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats (9-2, 7-1) will travel to take on the No. 5 Baylor Bears (10-1, 7-1) this week in a clash between two Big 12 teams. This game will feature the Big 12’s third-leading passer, Bryce Petty (2,893 yards, 25 TDs), and the second-leading receiver, Tyler Lockett (1,193 yards, 8 TDs). It will begin Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
The Bears have been victorious the last two times against the Wildcats, including a 35-25 win the last time they met. Tevin Reese had a great performance the last time they met, recording five catches for 184 yards and two TDs. Antwan Goodley had a big game as well, totaling 129 yards and a TD on four receptions. John Hubert had a good outing running the ball for Kansas State in that game, carrying the ball 15 times for 90 yards.
The Wildcats are a nine-point underdog against the Bears and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 67 points. Heading into Week 15 of the college football season, the Bears are 10-1 Straight Up (SU) and 7-4 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Bears have records of 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. They are lighting up the scoreboard so far this season with an average of 57 points per game at home, best in the nation. Chances are Baylor will keep the ball in the air. They have America’s sixth-ranked passing attack, averaging 340.2 yards per game. Turning to the Bears defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. Expect the Wildcats to have a difficult time running the ball against the 10th-best run defense in the land. The Bears give up only 108.1 yards per game on the ground. One of the keys to the game will be if the Wildcats can protect the quarterback against Baylor’s aggressive pass rush. The defense ranks fifth in the nation in sacks with 3.8 per home game. The Bears are one of the best in the country at scoring in the fourth quarter, averaging 9.7 points. With an average of 91.8 plays per game, Baylor has one of the most dynamic offenses in Division I. They rank first this season.
In the other locker room, the Wildcats have a record of 8-3 ATS and 9-2 SU. In the previous five games, Kansas State has a record of 4-1 both SU and ATS. Kansas State has found a lot of success through the air. Its 281.6 passing yards per game ranks 22nd in Division I. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Bears to keep up with Kansas State’s defense in a few areas. The Bears are matching up with Kansas State’s defense at an inopportune time. Over the last five games, Kansas State’s opponents have only averaged 184.4 yards through the air. Teams need to stay focused in the first quarter against the fast-starting Wildcats, who average 8.5 points in the first 15 minutes during road games. Yellow flags will likely be a common sight during any game with Baylor. The Bears are one of the most penalized teams in the country with 9.9 calls per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAY, ATS Winner – BAY, O/U – Under
Notes
Kansas State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
Baylor is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State’s last 6 games.
Baylor is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games.
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor’s last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State’s last 7 games on the road.
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Kansas State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baylor.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor’s last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State’s last 5 games when playing Baylor.
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State.
Baylor is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas State.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games when playing Kansas State.
Kansas State is 8-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Baylor is 9-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Kansas State is 8-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Baylor is 9-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
This season, Kansas State is undefeated (5-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and an even 2-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Baylor is 2-1 SU in games where it comes out ahead in the turnover battle, yet undefeated (3-0 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Baylor has provoked an average of 8.4 penalties on opponents over its last five games, but Kansas State is 7-1 SU this season when penalized at least 8 times in a game.
Dating back to last year, Baylor is 15-2 SU against Big 12 opponents, while Kansas State is 12-5 SU against conference foes.
Nationally, the Baylor passing attack is ranked sixth, while the Kansas State pass defense is only ranked 57th. The Wildcats passing game is ranked 22nd, compared to the 103rd-ranked pass defense of the Bears.
The Kansas State passing attack is ranked fifth in the Big 12, compared to the seventh-ranked pass defense of Baylor.
The Baylor rushing attack is ranked only 20th nationally, while the Kansas State run defense is ranked 19th. The Wildcats run game is ranked just 92nd, compared to the 10th-ranked rush defense of the Bears.
When analyzing just conference ratings, Baylor has the advantage in the run game. Its second-ranked rushing attack will face the fourth-ranked rush defense of Kansas State, while its first-ranked run defense will look to contain the seventh-ranked run game of the Wildcats.
Kansas State has given up 29.8 points per game on the road, which is ranked only 73rd in the nation. Baylor has scored 57.0 points per contest at home (ranked first overall).
