The BIG-12 Conference will have on display two of its premier teams when the Kansas State Wildcats square-off against the Texas Longhorns this weekend. The game is scheduled to begin on Saturday, October 7th at 7:00 p.m. EST. The smashed-faced football games can be seen on the FOX Sports 1 Network for your viewing entertainment. Oddsmakers have the Longhorns as a slight -3.5 point favorite and the contest’s total now sits at 49.5.
After suffering their first defeat of the season to Wake Forest, the Kansas State Wildcats bounced back nicely last week at against the Baylor Bears 33-20. In that showdown, the Wildcats used their rushing attack early and often to set the tone for the afternoon. As a result, Kansas State racked up 225 yards on 43 carries and wore the Bears down by game’s end.
Last Thursday, the Texas Longhorns went on the road to Iowa State and shut down the Cyclones 17-7. In that victory, the Longhorns used their newly revived defense to stymie the home team for all four quarters. Texas certainly was not an offensive juggernaut but controlled the match-up enough to get the W.
Last Season, the Kansas State Wildcats tripped up the Texas Longhorns in the Little Apple 24-21. The Longhorns were a one-point favorite, which Kansas State covered and the game’s total came in nine points to the under.
Kansas State Wildcats (3-1)
The Wildcats aren’t going to wow anybody with their methodical approach to their offense. Instead, they rely on their ball control and a stout defense to wear teams down over four full quarters of football. Still, Kansas State has one of the best quarterbacks in college football to spearhead that attack.
Senior signal-caller Jesse Ertz is a coaches dream. He is smart with the pigskin, a threat with his arm and his feet, and is tough as nails. That is the sole reason why head coach Bill Snyder like the ball in his hands for the majority of the Wildcats plays. So far this year, Ertz has thrown the ball 83 times completing 43 of those passes. The tosses have gone for 706 yards with five touchdowns and two picks.
So far this year, Ertz has thrown the ball 83 times completing 43 of those passes. The tosses have gone for 706 yards with five touchdowns and two picks. Jesse Ertz’s real talent under-center is his ability to use his size and strength to bolster the Wildcat’s running game. With his legs, Ertz has accumulated another 332 yards on a team-high 56 carries with another three trips to pay-dirt.
When it’s time for Kansas State to spell their dual-threat quarterback, they like to use running back Alex Barnes. As the second look, Barnes has toted the rock 46 times for 242 yards and two scores. Do not be mistaken, Barnes isn’t the only option out of the backfield. In fact, the Wildcats hand the ball off to six or seven other tailbacks on gameday.
Because of Kansas State’s pension to run the ball, their wide receivers don’t have the bigger numbers you might see elsewhere. Wideout Isaiah Zuber is clearly the number one guy to go to when Jesse Ertz looks to throw the football. So far, Zuber has reeled in 17 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. The play-action pass is the Wildcat’s weapon through the air. Because of that, three other receivers have eclipsed the century mark and all of them are averaging well over 20 yards per catch.
Defensively, Kansas State is only allowing 15 points and 308.5 yards per game. Trent Tanking leads the Kansas State Wildcats with 26 tackles, Will Geary also has three sacks and corner Kendall Adams has two interceptions. Overall, the Wildcats are ranked 33rd in the country against the pass and 32nd against the run.
Texas Longhorns (2-2)
Apparently, there is a new formula starting to emerge that the Longhorns are using to win football games in 2017. Instead of trying to outscore their opponents, they are buckling down on the other side of the ball. Even so, their offense still ranks 45th in the nation, averaging 443 yards per game.
Starting quarterback Shane Buechele looked good in the Longhorn’s opener but hasn’t been able to see the field again until last week’s game versus the Cyclones. In two games under center, Buechele has compiled 546 yards with three touchdowns and two picks.
Backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger was called upon to lead the Horns for the second and third games of Texas’ season. In those contests, Ehlinger threw the football around the field for very similar numbers to teammate Shane Buechele. Ehlinger has completed 36 balls for 520 yards with three scores and three picks.
The Texas Longhorns prefer to keep their offensive attack balanced. When it’s time to run the football, tailbacks Chris Warren III and Kyle Porter get the call. Together, the duo has rumbled for almost 400 yards on just under 90 attempts with four touchdowns. Warren has proven to have the big-play ability, averaging 6.1 yards when he touches the rock.
Like in the running game, two wide receivers also handle the majority of the work for the Longhorn’s offense. Collin Johnson and Armanti Foreman have teamed up for 35 catches that were good for 550 yards and four scores. Johnson is the kid that brings in the big yardage, racking up over 20 yards a catch.
Surprisingly, the Longhorns defense has seemed to find their footing in 2017. They stepped it up against USC and proved against the Cyclones that it wasn’t a fluke. All totaled, Texas ranks 39th in the nation in total yardage (344), and 43rd in the country, allowing only 21.2 points per game. More importantly, their front seven has been solid against the run, surrendering only 96.5 yards a contest (17th).
Prediction
It’s clear to me that the Texas Longhorns are going to try to stymie the Wildcats rushing attack by using their talented run-stop unit. In doing so, they would like to force Kansas State’s quarterback Zach Ertz to throw the football down the field.
Head coach Bill Snyder has his way of doing things in Manhatten and that isn’t going to change this weekend. It will be mono-y-mono in the trenches and may the best man win. No matter how good the Longhorn’s numbers are against the run, the Wildcats will continue to pound the rock for the duration of the game.
With those things to consider, I do like the fact that Texas is more balanced and can play from behind if necessary. Either way, the 3.5 line with the Longhorns as a favorite scares me a bit here. Yes, they are out for revenge in this one, but these two schools are bound for another close one.
Instead, I suggest taking a chance on the under 49.5 in this one. Both defenses have been playing good football and there should be plenty of four-yard gains that should keep the clock moving in this one. Expect a good old-fashioned slobber-knocker with the victor winning by a field goal.
Trends
The Wildcats are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games in October.
The Under is 5-2 in the Wildcats last 7 road games.
The Longhorns are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Under is 35-16 in the Longhorns last 51 games overall.
The Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
