Keeping horseracing simple is not a bad way to go when one gets serious about this complicated game.
For all the lofty figures, the sheets, the trip notes, the medication situations and other variables, players are just better off sometimes keeping it simple in horseracing.
One of the prime examples of keeping horseracing simple that yours truly did not subscribe to was the Carry Back Stakes recently. My selection Blind Ambition, who was ridden by Tyler Gaffilione, appeared to be coming to a peak performance but he had something to prove. If I was keeping it simple in horseracing I would have tabbed the pictured runner in the article Three Rules.
Three Rules was given a race as a prep in the $200,000 Chick Lang Stakes and that set him up perfectly.
Three Rules had the decided class edge and if I was keeping it simple in horseracing he would have been the selection. As it turned out Three Rules was well rated early, awaited his cue, rallied six wide and exuded his class.
Keeping it simple in horseracing is the same principle players on the Professional Golfers Tour employ.
It’s like playing golf and keeping the course ahead of you and to just think about one shot at a time. It is also similar to when playing hoops. If you just take care of the ball and get the rock to the open man and play solid defense, everything else will take care of itself. Teams are not going to shoot the lights out every right but by playing the right way, the score will be in your favor in most cases.
It’s not brain surgery so let’s look at ways to keeping in simple in horseracing.
Try not to reach when looking for winners and attempt to just find horses that are in good form and have been in the money in their last several starts.
If a horse had obvious trouble and still was beaten less than 2 lengths, that runner deserves legit consideration.
Quality horses like Arrogate and Gun Runner have obvious talent and good foundations. Because of their innate quality these runners keep their form longer than the cheaper runners plying their trade in ordinary claimers.
That’s just common sense.
Keeping horseracing simple can also relate to beaten favorites. Sometimes fans will just over bet droppers and runners that seem overdue to hit pay dirt no matter what their racing style. If a beaten favorite comes back in his next race at a juicy price of 8 or 10-1, there are worse bets to make in that situation.
There is a saying about not going to the funeral if you didn’t go to the wedding and it can be related to racing. Don’t get fooled and jump on the favorite today after that runner cashed in his last race as a long shot. Value stirs the drink.
Don’t go overboard on runners that have not proven they can handle today’s conditions. Attempt to stick to horse that have won at today’s distance and on today’s track. It’s like being in a comfort zone.
Remember, fans sometimes just go crazy for a horse that drops, gets a positive distance change and hails from a top barn. In situations like this, look for a runner in the same race that is also dropping, like today’s distance, but has been overlooked on the tote.
Keeping horseracing simple can mean just to have a strategy. When betting at home or at a simulcast facility, have a game plan. Don’t just go betting on every single race that is on the screen right now but have a plan for the day mapped out. If you are betting with a couple of friends, have each friend concentrate on one track and then share information. This will keep the bankroll going and will help with specialized wagers.
Along the same lines, approach a day with a goal and make it a realistic goal. Don’t go in thinking you are going to win a grand if your bankroll is $75. And it goes the other way, too. Limited your losses if you must and have a figure in your mind that is what you are willing to lose on any given card.
When looking at any race, know that the good trainers have a proven method that they follow. They will not just put a horse in a race for no reason and often times they will race a horse into shape. With that in mind, pay attention to runners that have two races under the belt and seem to be improving for that third start.
Keeping horseracing simple can also mean just trust your own eyes. When I was younger and going to the races nearly every day I made it a point to get down to the paddock and just watch the horses. You don’t have to be an expert to use your eyes and see good things and bad things about appearances. Like a well-toned athelete, a horse’s coat is a telltale sign often enough.
Try to get a good look at the horse as they get onto the track. This is not always easy if wagering at home but sometimes the feed from the track gives the bettors an opportunity to watch the horses warm up. If the coat of a horse is dappled or just healthy looking, that is an obvious positive sign. Horses that appear nervous or have a dull coat, are probably not in the most positive frame of mind to run a bang-up race.
Just like NBA players have ‘go to’ moves, keeping horseracing simple means to determine and accept one’s own ‘go to’ moves. Some bettors are just more accurate and successful when betting the big races and the stakes around the country. Some bettors take time to understand, organize and research young horses and are excellent with 2-year-olds or debuting runners. Some bettors have an equine green thumb and excel when betting horses on grass. The key to success is to choose a strategy that works for you and stick with it. Don’t expect to cash tickets every single day and try to keep an even keel when the eventual losing streak rears its ugly head. Value is a word that is thrown around a lot in horseracing, but seeking value is the key to getting and staying in the black.
Lastly, visualization is still the pivotal concept. Open up the Daily Racing Form, look at the race with a clear mind and ask yourself, ‘how will this race be run’?
Once you get a concept of the pace of the race, the other variables will fall into place.
