The only rule about winning the most important race in America is that there are no Kentucky Derby rules. There are many ways to skin a cat but players should know there are some methods tried and true and some that just plain don’t work.
The major contenders in this year’s McCraken, Gunnevera, Tapwrit, One Liner and Classic Empire all have taken slightly different paths on their way to hopefully the promised land.
Gunnevera didn’t get the memo about the Kentucky Derby rules being about high-priced runners. The colt only cost $16,000.
Things have changed since the golden age of modern racing in the 1970s when Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed all swept the Triple Crown but we can all learn from a little history so let’s look back, then forward to recent successes.
Secretariat started his sophomore season taking the Bay Shore at 7 furlongs in a disputed win. He came back in the mile Gotham and won under a hand ride. But a blessing in disguise occurred in his next start when he had an abscess in his mouth and lost the 9-furlong Wood Memorial.
The rest is history. Secretariat was visually impressive throwing the Kentucky Derby rules out the window in the Derby and Preakness and then put in arguably the greatest performance ever winning the Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths.
Seattle Slew kicked off his historic season winning a Hialeah allowance by nine lengths, parlayed the Flamingo Stakes and Wood before reeling off the hat trick as the 10th Triple Crown winner. He was the first unbeaten winner of that feat.
I had the pleasure of watching Affirmed’s quest in person at Santa Anita in 1978. He opened up the year taking an allowance by five lengths. He repeated in the San Felipe under Wonderkid Stevie Cauthen, who was replaced in the saddle by Laffit Pincay Jr. for the Santa Anita Derby in which he won by eight lengths under wraps.
Affirmed’s Kentucky Derby win was a thing of beauty and he held off Alydar in the next 2 legs like a warrior that just refused to lose.
Smarty Jones was from the ‘wrong side of the tracks’ being a Pennsylvania bred out of a dam who was sired by a sprinter. But he outran his pedigree by winning his first eight races. He took the Count Fleet on the inner strip at Aqueduct, wintered in Hot Springs, Arkansas and turned the hat trick there taking the Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby.
He then handled the slop in Louisville the first Saturday in May. He posted his highest career Beyer figure of 118 taking the Preakness but ran out of octane in the test of champions getting nailed late by Birdstone in the Belmont.
The Cinderella story of Afleet Alex started modestly at 3 also at Oaklawn as he overcame trouble to win a minor stakes. He folded up like a cheap suit in the Rebel but freaked by eight lengths in the Arkansas Derby. Arguably best in Louisville, Alex then posted one of the most amazing athletic feats ever witnessed in the Preakness before ending his career taking the Belmont by seven widening lengths.
In 2015 American Pharoah proved Kentucky Derby rules were for the birds. Trainer Bob Baffert had him on the sidelines for 6 months before he made his 2015 debut in the Rebel Stakes. The race came up sloppy and American Pharoah overcame trouble. He only had one more prep race before tackling the Churchill Downs surface and winning the Kentucky Derby with a 105 Beyer.
When thinking about the Kentucky Derby rules when handicapping this year’s classic, focus on the proper conditioning and spacing of the races.
Coming to the Derby a horse cannot miss an oat in the mornings. His coat can’t be off, he can’t have a sniffle, he can’t take a bad step. It has to go just about perfectly for a win to materialize.
When listening to trainers speak as the Road to the Derby continues, try to read in between the lines. Some say trainers only lie when their mouths are moving, so put a grain of salt next to every time you hear the words, ‘we would not trade places with anybody’.
Lastly, don’t get caught up in the hype about who is SUPPOSED to win or who is the wise-guy horse. There is no such creature. There is no master plan and no perfect Kentucky Derby rules about winning America’s most important race.
