The Kentucky Oaks enticed 15 potential stars and with a field this big, luck will play a big part of the outcome. The $1 million Grade 1 event is for 3-year-old fillies and will be run at nine furlongs at Churchill Downs on May 5.
The Kentucky Oaks has been won by some monuments of the sport over the decades since the inaugural event in 1875. The Kentucky Oaks, the Black-Eyed Susan and the Acorn Stakes represent the ‘Filly Triple Crown’.
Dark Mirage, who was the first winner of the Filly Triple Crown, won the Kentucky Oaks in 1968. The brilliant Princess Rooney was the heroine in 1983 and Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra was guided to victory in 2009 by Calvin Borel. Trainer Steve Asmussen won this race twice and will saddle Ever So Clever. The youngster has been the smartest filly in the room three times in here career including in the last start, a win in the Grade 3 Fantasy. She has the asset of breaking her maiden on this surface, ran well here in the mud last fall in the Grade 2 Pocahontas and she has a nice turn of late foot. She just overcame the extreme outside post at Oaklawn Park but should be able to save ground from the rail this time.
Lockdown has never run a poor race but is giving away some experience. She fired last time but was crushed by one of her arch rivals today in Miss Sky Warrior.
Mopotism brings some semblance of speed to the table and may not have adored the rail last time at Sunland Park. The Doug O’Neill trainee was Grade 1 placed last year and has trained forwardly for this but she has to invent a way to turn the tables on Paradise Woods, who just had her number in the Santa Anita Oaks.
Paradise Woods is trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Richard Mandella, who once won four Breeders’ Cup races in the same year. The filly graduated in her second start going away and she just destroyed the Santa Anita Oaks field. She was coaxed along on the lead by jockey Flavien Prat, opened up ten lengths at the top of the stretch and just kept going. She earned a juicy 107 Beyer Speed Figure.
Jordan’s Henry took time to figure it out but she has been second on this surface. She was given time after graduating in her 2016 finale and was Grade 2 placed in her two efforts this year. The concern about this daughter of Henny Hughes is that she has been handled by a number of today’s rivals and there are some distance concerns.
Vexatious should have her sea legs under her after getting three races under the belt. She was inching toward Ever So Clever in the Fantasy and is in good hands. Her trainer Neil Drysdale has been winning races for decades and there is nobody better pointing toward a particular race.
Farrell had the excuse of mud in her debut and her only other loss came in her first attempt going a route of ground. Since, she has been perfect. Trained by Wayne Catalano, this filly won the Grade 2 Golden Rod, the $145,000 Silverbulletday, the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra and the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Versatile enough to win on or off the pace, she seems to have taken to this Churchill Downs surface.
Sailor’s Valentine is fresh from a coming out party after winning the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. She has much more speed than she just demonstrated and she has run well in defeat on this surface.
Wicked Lick has some things to iron out. Her only victory came in a grass race and she was fully extended that day. The thing she doesn’t have going for her is the fact she has to deal with Farrell again. That miss just beat her three straight times.
Miss Sky Warrior was educated when beaten by a repeat winner in her sprint debut. Since, she is five for five. Best when sent along, but she showed in the Grade 2 Davona Dale that she could rate off the pace. Options are always good in his sport and the options are obviously there for this miss.
Tequilita has to prove she can go this far but she is in the right barn. Her trainer Michael Matz conditioned the late great Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro and Matz takes care of his horses. He doesn’t overmatch them and just the fact he gives this miss a chance here speak volumes. She needed her last race and has every right to move forward off that effort.
Salty takes the worst of it post-wise in the Kentucky Oaks as she landed post 14. Trained by Mark Casse, this filly lost a heartbreaker in her debut but graduated as the chalk and was impressive in her last. In that Gulfstream Park Oaks, this miss made a nice middle move to go from fifth to a length off the lead and then drew off in the stretch.
Summer Luck will need a lot of it to win this race. She has won at Churchill but that was her only victory She didn’t get the best of trips in the Davona Dale and may not have adored the Keeneland surface last time.
Although this race is loaded with speed and quality, the Kentucky Oaks this year is missing a star in Unique Bella. She would have been a clear favorite in this race but an injury sidelined her. Unique Bella only lost once and was troubled that day. Her versatility would have carried the day in the Kentucky Oaks.
In her absence, the speedballs figure to duel but Paradise Wood should be able to adapt and win. She will likely be joined on the front end by Farrell, Miss Sky Warrior, Sailor’s Valentine and maybe Mopotism.
The ability to quicken should give Paradise Woods the upper hand. She made a super middle move in her maiden breaker to attack the leader and she passed her first route race test with flying colors. Her trainer Mandella is a master when guiding superstars and this miss has that kind of potential. Mandella was one of the first trainers on the West Coast to identify the ability of jockey Prat and his career has really benefitted. With anything close to a clear trip, Paradise Woods dominates.
