The Kentucky Wildcats have been one of the surprise stories in the SEC so far this season. They will look to keep their strong start going against one of their toughest opponents so far this weekend. The Wildcats should be well rested after getting their bye week following a 40-34 win over the Missouri Tigers to improve to 5-1 on the season. Now Kentucky gets the opportunity to prove that it is legitimate with a tough test on the road against another SEC opponent in the Mississippi State Bulldogs this Saturday afternoon.
Details
Odds: Mississippi State -11.5
Date & Time: Saturday October 21st, 2017 – 4:00 PM ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, Mississippi
Broadcast: SEC Network
Reasons To Bet On The Kentucky Wildcats
Quarterback Stephen Johnson completed 22-of-36 pass attempts for 298 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win over Missouri. Kentucky will need another strong performance out of him this week at Mississippi State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats could lean heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. once again after he racked up 117 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20 carries against the Tigers. Kentucky is 2-1 in SEC play and they have won each of their first two road games. The Wildcats defense will be put to the test by an offense that is capable of scoring points in bunches. Kentucky has held opponents to an average of 21.3 points per game this season so they will need that defense to step up again if they are going to win this game on the road.
Reasons To Bet On The Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 35-10 win over BYU to improve to 4-2 but they are just 1-2 against SEC opponents so far this season. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald will need to produce a strong performance if Mississippi State is going to get back to .500 against conference opponents this weekend. Fitzgerald threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions in last week’s win over the Cougars. He needs to cut down on the mistakes and avoid turning the football over in order to pick up the win at home this weekend. The Bulldogs have a capable running back of their own to lean on in Aeris Williams, who had 114 rushing yards on 23 carries last week. Fitzgerald also had 103 rushing yards last week so if that tandem can effectively move the football on the ground then their offense will be tough to stop.
Outlook
We’ve seen plenty of movement on this betting line since it opened up. Originally, the Mississippi State Bulldogs were posted as a 10-point favorite but that line has moved up since then. Bettors have been leaning towards the Bulldogs, which has pushed the line up to -11.5. As for the total, we’ve also seen a steady move as the game opened up at 52 but the line has climbed. We’re now looking at a total of 64.5. Clearly, bettors seem to be thinking that this will be a high-scoring affair – or at least higher than what the odds makers have posted.
For as explosive as the Mississippi State offense has the potential to be they will have a tough time scoring enough points to keep a rested Wildcats team from covering the spread this weekend. Kentucky is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 SEC games and 5-1 against the spread in their last five on the road. Considering the Under has hit in the last four meetings between these teams when the Bulldogs had home field advantage it’s worth considering whether this will be another low scoring contest. The Wildcats are getting more than a touchdown on the road in a game that they can very well win straight up. It makes sense to take the points and expect Kentucky to cover at the very least in what should be a close contest. We like the fact that we’re now getting more than 10 points on the line; getting the Wildcats as a double-digit favorite in this spot should lead to a win for us.
Prediction: Kentucky +11.5
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