The No. 16 Kentucky Wildcats are underdogs as they prepare to take on the No. 13 Penn State Nittany Lions in the Citrus Bowl. The opening kickoff for this critical matchup is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ABC.
Kentucky Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
In this early-week game, Penn State has been tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 6 points. The Wildcats are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Nittany Lions are -240. Some good live betting possibilities could present themselves during the showdown, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points.
This matchup’s betting odds have shifted a bit from when they were originally posted. The line opened at -6 and the game’s over/under was initially set at 48.
The profitable Wildcats are 5-7 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 10.6 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-7. The Nittany Lions have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 7-5 ATS and owns an O/U record of 6-5-1.
The Wildcats have gone 9-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Nittany Lions are also 9-3 SU.
The Wildcats are coming off a resounding 56-10 win over Louisville on November 24 where Terry Wilson completed 17 passes on 23 attempts for 261 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Benny Snell (100 rushing yards on 18 attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Wilson (79 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the running attack. Lynn Bowden (six receptions, 86 yards, two TDs) and Josh Ali (three catches, 59 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Penn State enters this Tuesday’s matchup following a 38-3 win over Maryland. The team’s defense did its part in the victory, limiting the Terrapins to just 185 passing yards and 74 rushing yards. Brian Cobbs had a productive showing in the defeat for Maryland, recording 58 yards and a score on two catches. For Penn State, Trace McSorley completed 12-of-22 passes for 230 yards and one touchdown. Miles Sanders (128 yards on 14 rush attempts) and the signal-caller McSorley (64 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) handled the running attack as KJ Hamler (three receptions, 90 yards) and DeAndre Thompkins (three catches, 36 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Kentucky has run the ball on 63.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Penn State has an overall rush percentage of 58.3 percent. The Wildcats have produced 201 rush yards/game and have 25 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Nittany Lions are averaging 209 rush yards per game and have 33 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Nittany Lions ought to hold an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.2 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Wildcats have recorded 4.9 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Wildcats offense has tallied 165 yards per contest through the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Nittany Lions have put up 216 pass yards per contest and have 19 total pass scores.
Kentucky has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 145 yards and throw for 181 yards per game. The Penn State defense has allowed 186.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Nittany Lions are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.74 to opponents, while the Wildcats have allowed a 4.89 ANY/A.
Offensively, Wilson has put up 1,647 passing yards this season. He’s completed 67 percent of his 239 attempts with 10 scores through the air and eight interceptions. Wilson’s got a 5.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.41 over the last two outings.
The Wildcats have tried to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Lynn Bowden (652 yards, five TDs) has gotten involved recently in the passing game, but the RB tandem of Benny Snell (1,189 rush yards, 12 rush TDs) and Asim Rose (385 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) have delivered in the Kentucky offensive scheme.
On the other sideline, Trace McSorley has managed to complete 158-of-291 passes for 2,101 yards, 14 TDs and five INTs. McSorley’s ANY/A stands at 6.46 for the year and 7.02 over his past two outings.
The Nittany Lions also like to keep their RBs featured. In addition to Miles Sanders (130 receiving yards), KJ Hamler (33 rush yards, one rush TD, 642 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Trace McSorley (684 rush yards, 11 rush TDs) have gotten quite a few looks recently.
Free Pick: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
SU Winner – Penn State, ATS Winner – Penn State, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Penn State defense has sacked opposing QBs 43 times this year. Kentucky has produced just 32 sacks.
Penn State has lost 12 fumbles this season while Kentucky has lost eight.
The Wildcats offense has tallied five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Nittany Lions have put up seven such plays.
The Kentucky defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Penn State has given up four such plays.
The Kentucky offense has created 23 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Penn State has created 21 such runs.
The Wildcats defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Nittany Lions have given up 18 such runs.
Penn State has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -35-point defeat to Michigan on November 3rd representing the only loss over that stretch.
Kentucky has rushed for 5.1 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 6.3 over its last two.
Penn State has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.4 over its past two.
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