The No.4-seeded Kentucky Wildcats (26-8) square off against the No.13-seeded Stony Brook Seawolves (26-6) in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Wells Fargo Arena. Action begins at 9:40 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 17 and will air on CBS.
The Wildcats come into this game on a high note after beating Texas A&M 82-77 in the 5 of the Southeastern tournament. Tyler Ulis was the team’s high scorer with 30 points on 10-for-17 shooting. The Seawolves, meanwhile, are coming off an 80-74 win over Vermont in the 3 of the America East tournament. Jameel Warney claimed his 20th double-double of the season with 43 points and 10 rebounds.
Over the last five games, Jamal Murray and Ulis have played well for the Wildcats. During that stretch, Murray has averaged 21.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.6 steals, and 3.8 three-pointers. Not to be outdone, Ulis has put up 21.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.
This showdown pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as Kentucky currently ranks eighth in the nation in offensive efficiency and Stony Brook is seventh in defensive efficiency. Also, the Seawolves’s 28th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 114.1) will face off against the 33rd-ranked defense of the Wildcats (defensive efficiency of 99.9).
The Wildcats are looking to build on their records of 26-8 Straight Up (SU) and 18-16 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a solid 8-2 SU record over their last 10 games, but have not fared as well ATS (0-2-1). Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Kentucky, which ranks 50th at 1.30. Turning to the defensive side, teams really have to fight for three-pointers against the Wildcats, who have allowed only 5.0 three-pointers to opponents per game.
Over on the other bench, the Seawolves haven’t fared well ATS, sitting at 1-5-1. However, they are 26-6 SU. Most recently, Stony Brook is 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games. The Seawolves rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the 19th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.45. Stony Brook’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 6.0 shots from the three-point line per game.
This game marks the first time Kentucky and Stony Brook have played one another in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – Kty, ATS Winner – Kty
Notes
“Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games “.
The Kentucky Wildcats rank eighth for their offensive rating of 117.5. The Stony Brook Seawolves have a defensive rating of 94.1 (ranked seventh).
On average, Kentucky has 67.8 possessions per game and scores 1.175 points on each possession. Stony Brook has both fewer possessions (67.3) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.141).
Kentucky has an average effective field goal percentage of 53.7%. Stony Brook is an even 3-3 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Kentucky Wildcats average 18.0 three point attempts per game, and the Stony Brook Seawolves attempt 18.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Kentucky is 13-6 and Stony Brook is 7-2.
The 19th-ranked team in the category, Stony Brook has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.45 this season. Kentucky ranks 50th with an A/TO of 1.30.
Kentucky ranks 59th in rebounds per game with 38.8 and Stony Brook ranks 36th with 39.6 rebounds per game.
The Stony Brook Seawolves rank 59th in offensive rebounds. The Kentucky Wildcats rank 137th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
Though Stony Brook is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 19.0% (ranked 24th), Kentucky has a fantastic 7-2 record SU when it has a TO% of 19.0% or greater.
