It will be a battle between SEC opponents when the No. 10 Auburn Tigers (22-3, 10-2 SEC) welcome the Kentucky Wildcats (17-8, 6-6 SEC) to Auburn Arena. The game will air on ESPN2 at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 14, 2018.
Auburn opened as an 8.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 158 points.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers ATS Prediction
The Wildcats are trying to rebound after their 85-74 loss to the Texas A&M Aggies in their last matchup. Texas A&M’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Kentucky. The Aggies had a rate of 0.212 (above their season average of 0.202), while the Wildcats posted a mark of 0.121 (below their season average of 0.304). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the top scorer from either team with 19 points on 9-for-12 shooting.
The last time the Tigers played, they beat the Georgia Bulldogs, 78-61. The Tigers had a turnover percentage of 12.4 (better than their season average of 14.7) and held the Bulldogs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.9 (below their season average of 35.1). Jared Harper was the top scorer from either team with 24 points on 8-for-13 shooting.
The offensive glass should be a major edge for Auburn in this matchup. The Tigers are among the NCAA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 37th in offensive rebounding percentage at 34.2 percent. Meanwhile, Kentucky ranks 262nd in the NCAA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 69.4 percent. Furthermore, the Wildcats rank 22nd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.295), while the Tigers rank 287th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.274).
Kentucky is 17-8 straight up (SU), but they are just 9-15-1 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Wildcats have a slight tendency to finish over the O/U total (54.2 percent).
Meanwhile, Auburn owns records of 22-3 SU and 16-6 ATS. Vegas is exceedingly precise when setting the total of Tigers games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Mustapha Heron and Harper have been playing well over the last five games for Auburn. Heron has averaged 20.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Harper has recorded 14.4 points, 8.6 assists and 1.4 steals a game during that span.
After the Wildcats won the lone contest against the Tigers last season, 92-72, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Wildcats had a much better free throw rate (0.304 vs. 0.081) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (38.7 vs. 24.3).
Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers ATS Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Auburn, ATS Winner – Kentucky, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Kentucky is 4-5-1 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 5 unders.
Auburn is 7-3 ATS at home with 6 overs and 4 unders.
Auburn ranks 36th in three pointers attempted per game (26.0) while Kentucky ranks 307th (14.6).
The Tigers rank eighth in blocks per game (5.8) while the Wildcats rank 145th in blocks allowed per game (3.8).
Auburn ranks 44th in steals per game (7.4) while Kentucky ranks 159th (5.8).
The Wildcats average 38.9 rebounds per game, which ranks 38th in the nation. The Tigers rank 109th in rebounds allowed per game (34.0).
Auburn ranks 83rd in assists per game (15.1) while Kentucky ranks 135th in assists allowed per game (13.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Kentucky is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Auburn is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Wildcats have been outscored by an average of 2.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Kentucky has defeated opponents by an average of 5.5 points.
During their last five games, the Tigers have scored an average of 85.0 points per game (0.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 72.6 points per game (0.2 above their season average).
