It will be a battle between SEC opponents when the LSU Tigers (9-3) welcome the No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (11-2, 1-0 SEC) to Pete Maravich Assembly Center. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018, and will air on SEC Network.
Kentucky is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 153.5 points.
Kentucky Wildcats at LSU Tigers ATS Prediction
The Wildcats come in on a high note after beating the Georgia Bulldogs in their last contest, 66-61. The Wildcats made 27 of their 38 free throws (71.1 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 11.3 (better than their season average of 17.2). Kentucky rallied around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was the top scorer from either team with 21 points on 4-for-9 shooting.
In the Tigers’ last game, they beat the Memphis Tigers, 71-61. LSU’s 0.583 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Memphis, who had a mark of 0.407. Tremont Waters was the game’s leading scorer with 18 points on 6-for-12 shooting.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, this will be a matchup of two heavyweights. The upper-echelon LSU offense ranks eighth in the nation in that metric at 0.589, while the top-notch Kentucky defense is ranked 48th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.462). Also, the Wildcats are among the NCAA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 17th in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2 percent). The Tigers, meanwhile, rank 274th in defensive rebounding percentage (68.5 percent).
Kentucky comes into the game with records of 11-2 straight up (SU) and 6-7 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Wildcats have typically gone over the projected point total (58.3 percent).
Meanwhile, LSU is 9-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS. Similarly to Kentucky, games including the Tigers also have typically gone over the total (55.6 percent).
Hamidou Diallo has averaged 18.8 points and 1.8 steals over the last five games for Kentucky.
After the Wildcats won the lone game against the Tigers last season, 92-85, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Wildcats made 21 of their 26 free throws (80.8 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (43.8 vs. 23.5).
Kentucky Wildcats at LSU Tigers Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Kentucky, ATS Winner – Kentucky, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Kentucky is 2-1 ATS on the road with 2 overs and 1 under.
At home, LSU is 3-1-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
LSU ranks 113th in three pointers attempted per game (23.0) while Kentucky ranks 270th (14.6).
The Wildcats rank 33rd in rebounds per game (40.2) while the Tigers rank 155th (35.7).
Kentucky ranks 15th in blocks per game (5.9) while LSU ranks 90th (3.7).
The Tigers rank 31st in steals per game (8.1) while the Wildcats rank 99th in steals allowed per game (6.4).
LSU ranks 60th in assists per game (15.9) while Kentucky ranks 111th in assists allowed per game (13.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Kentucky is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
LSU is 2-1 ATS with 2 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Wildcats’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.0, down from 11.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Tigers have scored an average of 83.4 points per game (1.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 66.2 points per game (7.2 below their season average).
