The No.1-seeded Kentucky Wildcats challenge the No.1-seeded Wisconsin Badgers in the Final Four of the NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Action begins at 8:49 pm ET on Saturday, Apr. 4 and can be seen on TBS.
The Wildcats come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, barely hanging on to beat Notre Dame 68-66 in the Elite Eight. Willie Cauley-Stein was the team’s leading scorer with 18 points on 7-for-9 shooting. The Badgers, meanwhile, are coming off an 85-78 win against Arizona in the Elite Eight. Frank Kaminsky was the game’s top scorer, registering 20 points on 9-for-13 shooting.
Kaminsky has upped his play for the Badgers, averaging 23.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.8 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers over the past five games.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out, as two of the nation’s top rebounding teams face off. Kentucky is among the nation’s best on the offensive glass, ranking fifth in OR% at 40.6%. Meanwhile, Wisconsin ranks third in the nation at corralling defensive boards with a DR% of 76.3%. Also, the sharp-shooting offense of the Badgers ranks 29th in eFG% at 54.3%, while the Wildcats are best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (39.7%).
Kentucky is a six-point favorite against Wisconsin and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at 133 points. The Wildcats come into this game 38-0 Straight Up (SU) and 20-16-2 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (8-1-1). The rebounding edge goes to the Wildcats in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 38.1 boards per game. Kentucky is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.38. Kentucky’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the nation, allowing just 4.6 three-pointers per game.
In the other locker room, the Badgers have a record of 20-17-1 ATS and 35-3 SU. The Badgers convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 15th in the nation at .754. The Badgers are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking third in Division I at 1.63. Moving on to the Wisconsin defense, the Badgers allow very few three-pointers on defense with 4.9 given up per game.
This game will be the first meeting for Kentucky and Wisconsin in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – UK, ATS Winner – UK, O/U – Over
Notes
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
In its last game, Wisconsin won by a margin of 24 points. Kentucky is 16-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Wisconsin has an 11-0 record in blowouts.
The Kentucky Wildcats have the best defense in the nation, with a defensive rating of 119.4. The Wisconsin offense ranks a solid fourth, with an offensive rating of 119.6.
Wisconsin has an average field goal percentage of 48.0%, ranked 21st in the country. Kentucky is undefeated (2-0) when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Kentucky Wildcats and the Wisconsin Badgers both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Kentucky is 78th and 38th in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Wisconsin ranks 29th and 21st in these categories.
Kentucky ranks 41st in assists, registering 14.9 per game. Wisconsin performs worse at 195th with 12.4 assists per game.
Kentucky, the second-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 6.9 per game. Wisconsin ranks lower at 151st with 3.6.
Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 22nd. Wisconsin ranks just 110th in defensive rebounds.
Wisconsin makes 4.5 steals per game. In games where it allows 4 or more steals, Kentucky is undefeated at 21-0.
