The Kentucky Wildcats are the lowest-seeded team at this year’s Final Four, but they sure don’t look or feel like an underdog. Las Vegas has favored them over Wisconsin by a small margin in this Saturday’s second semifinal game. Will Kentucky be able to pull through and win, or will this late-season run come to an end against a team whose coach is appearing in his first Final Four?
2014 NCAA Men’s Final Four – Game 2
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, Approx. 8:49 PM ET (40 minutes after Connecticut-Florida)
NCAA Basketball Odds: Kentucky -2
The Wildcats Will Win If…
The Kentucky team right now is a team that believes in itself. It’s a united team. It’s a team that doesn’t fall apart when the other team makes an 8-0 or 10-2 run. Kentucky lost Willie Cauley-Stein, an important rebounder and shot blocker, for its last two games against Louisville and Michigan. That kind of loss could have hurt Kentucky, and it would have harmed other teams in the middle of the tournament. Yet, other people stepped up for Kentucky, players that had contributed rarely or not at all during the regular season. Last Friday, it was Dakari Johnson who filled in for Cauley-Stein, helping big man Julius Randle on the glass and in the low blocks. On Sunday, a different hero came to the rescue, as Marcus Lee, who had been just about invisible for this team since the middle of November, scored 10 points and collected eight rebounds. As long as Kentucky gets at least one major gift from an interior player other than Randle, it will have one of the ingredients it needs in order to win. If Kentucky can then get at least one big game from a perimeter player, probably James Young, they should be able to do everything they need to do on Saturday. Kentucky has better athletes than Wisconsin, and it has more bodies than the Badgers, even with the injury to Cauley-Stein. Kentucky’s ability to rebound will probably prove to be too much for Wisconsin.
The Badgers Will Win If…
They can score really well against Kentucky’s defense. This game will look a lot like the Kentucky-Michigan game. Kentucky scored a lot, but it couldn’t really defend Michigan. The matchup was so bad for Michigan on defense, but it was a great matchup for Michigan on offense. Michigan’s weakness was that it did not score enough on Kentucky. It was just not going to have much of a chance on defense, specifically because it was not going to be able to stop Kentucky from rebounding the ball on offense. Here, it is going to be similar for Wisconsin. The Badgers will be able to spread the floor against Kentucky’s big but inconsistent defense. The Badgers can get their three-point shooters, such as Ben Brust, established near the three-point arc. Sam Dekker and Josh Gasser will also be able to help out, and if enough Wisconsin players can score consistently, the Badgers might be able to score 85, even though they might give up 80 in this game. Scoring, not defending, is the first key for Wisconsin on Saturday.
Outlook
The game will be a high-scoring one played in the mid-70s or higher. Kentucky will give up plenty of points, but the Wildcats are so talented and in form right now that they’ll be able to break down Wisconsin’s defense enough to win.
Pick: Kentucky -2
