The No.1-seeded Wisconsin Badgers get together with the No.1-seeded Kentucky Wildcats in the Final Four of the NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game starts at 8:49 pm ET on Saturday, Apr. 4 and will air on TBS.
The Wildcats edged Notre Dame 68-66 in the Elite Eight. Karl-Anthony Towns led all scorers with 25 points on 10-for-13 shooting. The Badgers, meanwhile, are coming off an 85-78 win over Arizona in the Elite Eight. Sam Dekker stood out for Wisconsin, accumulating 27 points, five rebounds, and one assist.
Frank Kaminsky has been on fire over the last five games for the Badgers, averaging 23.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.8 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers.
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. Kentucky is among the nation’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking fifth in OR% at 40.6%. Meanwhile, Wisconsin ranks third in the nation at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 76.3%. Also, the elite offense of the Badgers ranks 29th in eFG% at 54.3%, while the Wildcats are best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (39.7%).
Kentucky is a six-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 133 points. The Wildcats enter the game with records of 38-0 Straight Up (SU) and 20-16-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 8-1-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Kentucky has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where they rack up an average of 38.1 rebounds per game. The Wildcats, sporting the 17th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.38), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Turning to the defensive end, the Wildcats have limited opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing 4.6 three-pointers made per game.
Across the court, the Badgers head into the game with records of 20-17-1 ATS and 35-3 SU. Wisconsin is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the nation, converting .754 of their shots from the line. The Badgers rarely make the wrong play with the ball. They have the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.63. Wisconsin’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 4.9 shots from the three-point line per game.
This game marks the first time Kentucky and Wisconsin have ever played one another in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – UK, ATS Winner – UK, O/U – Over
Notes
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The Kentucky Wildcats rank 12th for their offensive rating of 115.6. The Wisconsin Badgers have a defensive rating of 169.0 (ranked 83rd).
Kentucky averages 64.6 possessions per game, scoring 1.156 points on each possession. While Wisconsin averages fewer possessions per game with 59.9, they score more points per possession with 1.196.
The Wisconsin Badgers average an effective field goal percentage of 54.3% this season. The Kentucky Wildcats are a perfect 2-0 in games where opponents have an eFG% of 54.3% or greater.
On average, Kentucky attempts 15.8 three pointers and Wisconsin attempts 19.2. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Kentucky Wildcats are undefeated at 8-0 while the Wisconsin Badgers have a fantastic 12-3 record.
The Wisconsin Badgers are among the best in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.63 (ranked third). Ranking 17th, the Kentucky Wildcats have an A/TO of 1.38.
Ranked 23rd in the nation, Kentucky averages 38.1 rebounds per game. Wisconsin ranks lower at 194th with 34.0 RPG.
Wisconsin ranks 269th in offensive rebounds, while Kentucky ranks at 59th in defensive rebounds.
