The jury is still out on where Kirk Cousins ranks among NFL starting quarterbacks. His record as a starter (26-30-1 in the regular season, 0-1 in the playoffs) doesn’t exactly scream “highest paid player in the NFL.” But while his credentials as a quarterback who can win a Super Bowl are in question, his fantasy pedigree is elite. The Minnesota Vikings‘ new quarterback has everything he needs to be a valuable fantasy asset yet again.
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Reasons to Get Excited
Recent Success
Cousins was Washinton‘s full-time starter for the last three seasons. He followed up a top-10 fantasy season in 2015 with back-to-back finishes in the top five. He accomplished this despite inconsistent performances from his supporting cast. The running backs, featuring a combination of Alfred Morris, Matt Jones, Rob Kelley, Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine, never exceeded 704 yards in a season.
As for the receivers, Cousins got some help from Pierre Garcon and occasionally DeSean Jackson or Jamison Crowder. But Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson had constant injury issues and Terrelle Pryor couldn’t replicate his numbers in Cleveland. Still, Cousins was an every-week fantasy starter. Imagine what he’d look like with more talent and consistency around him.
Skill Position Players in Minnesota
Oh wait, we don’t have to imagine. If Dalvin Cook returns fully healthy, he’ll be the best running back Cousins has had by far. Even if he doesn’t, Latavius Murray picked up more rushing yards in 2017 (842) than any of Cousins’ running backs in Washington. On top of that, he gets second-team All-Pro Adam Thielen, a big-play threat in Stefon Diggs and a tight end who hasn’t missed a game since 2014 in Kyle Rudolph. If former first-rounder Laquon Treadwell rounds into form, even better.
Durability
The Vikings have had some injury problems at quarterback in the past, as starters Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford missed a significant amount of time. That’s unlikely to be a problem with Cousins, who has never even appeared on an injury report in the NFL. Considering the injuries sustained by top fantasy quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, Cousins could be a safer, cheaper choice.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Offensive Line
The Vikings have had offensive line problems for years, though they were hidden in 2017 due to Case Keenum’s ability to avoid pressure. Cousins absorbed the fifth-most sacks in the league in his final year with the Redskins and Minnesota’s line is arguably worse. The extra pressure won’t be good for his fantasy value, especially considering his struggles with turnovers in the past.
Minnesota’s Defense
Many a fantasy quarterback has made his bones in garbage time due to his defense getting him locked in a shootout. Cousins benefited from that in Washington from time to time. That is unlikely to continue.
The @Vikings had the NFL's #1 total defense in 2017
In his 3 seasons as the primary starter, total defense ranks of Kirk Cousins-led teams:
21st
28th
28th— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) March 13, 2018
Though Minnesota’s defense should help improve Cousins’ record as a starter, it could make him less appealing in fantasy lineups.
Playcalling Inexperience
Minnesota’s new offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo, got plenty of credit for helping Carson Wentz and Nick Foles en route to Philadelphia’s Super Bowl win. The problem is almost all of his coaching experience is as a quarterbacks coach. He spent 2015 as Cleveland’s offensive coordinator when the Browns ranked 30th in points scored. His lone season as a playcaller ended when Mike Pettine’s coaching staff was let go. That doesn’t necessarily mean DeFilippo can’t call plays, but we haven’t seen it yet. It’s an unknown factor that puts some mystery around Cousins’ value.
Conclusion
Cousins is going to be an enticing option. As odd as it seems, Cousins may have fewer red flags than the other top fantasy quarterbacks. Whether it’s age (Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger), injury (Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers) or a drop-off in surrounding talent (Russell Wilson), the cream of the crop are less enticing than they usually are. That might be a better argument to wait on a quarterback. Still, Cousins is worth keeping an eye on. He could be the top passer in fantasy in 2018.
