We are witnessing an unprecedented level of scoring in the NBA this season, with pace of play, 3-point attempts and transition scoring opportunities all off the charts.
And this is relevant to LeBron James because … ?
The King is going up against the undefeated Denver Nuggets tonight on TNT in the second night of a back-to-back, and the over/under is 235. If recent history holds, that number should fall sometime around the midpoint of the fourth quarter … or earlier.
Trend betting is something that keeps the sharps sharp, which is why a whole lot of people bet on LeBron to make it to the NBA Finals. Given that the guy has done it for eight straight seasons, it is not a bad bet — even this year.
Yes, even with the Lakers sitting at 1-3, having used three different starting lineups.
A bad start for a LeBron-led team is not unprecedented, and while Laker Nation may be panic-stricken, let us take this opportunity to remind you that we are currently in late October, Brandon Ingram is riding out a suspension, Kyle Kuzma looks damn good and about 18 dozen players (Anthony Davis is among them) are angling to join up with Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson and the Lake Show in the weeks, months and seasons ahead.
Oh, and the trade deadline is still more than three months away.
All together now …. 10 … deep … breaths.
That better?
OK. Let’s look at the difference between perception and reality.
The perception is that the Lakers are doomed because LeBron does not have a ton of championship-caliber players surrounding him at the current juncture. And yes, this is true despite the pedigree of Rajon Rondo and JaVale McGee, who have been there and done that.
Just remember that both are on one-year contracts and are more or less rentals.
The reality is that LeBron took a cast of castoffs to the NBA Finals last season in Cleveland, carrying a load of baggage that was so underwhelming that Saturday Night Live hilariously spoofed it.
And if not for J.R. Smith and a certain episode of cranial flatulence, a blackboard in Golden State and a billboard in Cleveland might not have been destroyed/replaced. A certain grocery cupboard might not be quite as bare as it is tonight.
Also, let’s not forget the Nuggets, who appear on national TV these days about as often as Johnny Carson. Players tend to bring their A- or A-plus games when the Turner Sports folks are in the house.
This season, the over has hit 59.68 percent of the time, a number that actually dipped following Wednesday night’s games — Steph Curry’s 11 3-pointers representing an outlier result when unders ruled the night.
The other number that jumps off the charts is that 75 percent of home underdogs have won against the spread (ATS in gambling lingo), and LeBron and whoever starts alongside him tonight will be getting 2 points against the visiting Nuggets.
So the betting trends say the Lakers will either win, or lose by 1, which would represent a cover.
The basketball gods may have other things in mind, which is why they play the games …. as they say.
Whatever the case, there is always the option of not gambling at all, popping some popcorn, pulling out some soft drinks and/or milk and roasting some marshmallows with Hershey bars and graham crackers while camping out in the forest and watching on a mobile device.
Ah, basketball in the late 2010s. Makes you reminisce about when “I Love This Game” did not have a hashtag.
Things are going to change in the NBA in an extraordinary way over the next eight-plus months.
More than half the league will be free agents next summer, there are NBA veterans plying their trade in China because they have been squeezed off of NBA rosters by the Gen Y-Z quants who undervalue life experience, and there could be five one-and-dones coming out of Duke after the recruiting class that Mike Krzyzewski brought in sees how March Madness plays out.
It is October, folks, and the trick-or-treaters have not even finished purchasing their costumes.
So manage your expectations, OK?
With that in mind, let’s take a look at what is on the board tonight for Nuggets-Lakers:
I would appreciate a prop bet on who will get a triple-double first — LeBron or Jokic.
But the guys who put the lines on the board are not located in New York, and there’s an old saying about how we only can control the things we can control.
Tell ‘ya this: I would take Jokic in that one because the guy is a legit MVP candidate, as David Griffin told y’all in a podcast a couple weeks back when the kid was 100-1.
He has since dropped to 40-1 as shown in the chart below.
Blake Griffin is going to end up on that list eventually, too, what with him leading the NBA in scoring and whatnot.
TALKING BLAKE GRIFFIN WITH PISTONS P.A. ADDRESS ANNOUNCER JOHN MASON
So again, repeat after me (especially in Laker Nation): It’s early. Some of us will be shoveling sleet and snow and slush while y’all are watching the sun set into the Pacific Ocean on a nightly basis. So chill, OK?
Don’t bet against LeBron too often. And tonight, if you are betting the trends, expect to see something high-scoring and superlative.
Recent history, and the history of the past decade, have both shown us that we should never underestimate him or the players he is competing against.
If the final score ends up 154-153, remember where you saw it first.
