Last weekend’s League of Legends Quarterfinals were the craziest we have ever seen. The three biggest underdogs of the weekend all won and advanced to the LoL World Championship semifinals. For the first time since they started playing at the World Championship, there are no representatives from Korea in the semifinals, and Western teams produced their best showing ever. Three of the four semifinalists are Western teams, and both Europe and North America are over the moon about a potential World Champion from one of those two regions for the first time since 2011. Let’s break it down.
LoL World Championship Semifinals Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Invictus Gaming -260 G2 Esports +200
For all the talk of Western teams and the possibilities for one of them to win the World Championship, the favorite to win it all is Invictus Gaming. They have more individual talent than the other semifinalists, and they rode that to a win over KT Rolster last weekend.
It all starts with Rookie when it comes to Invictus. The flashy mid laner was able to outplay Ucal in their win over KT last Saturday, and his play will be the most important factor the rest of the way. All four remaining teams have great mid laners, and he can put Invictus at a major advantage if he can win his lane.
There is talent elsewhere too. JackeyLove is a budding star at the AD Carry position. He has been sharp on both Lucian and Kaisa, and he has improved on Varys too. JackeyLove has relied on those three picks, so you can squeeze his champion pool, but that would open things up for the top lane and Rookie.
Duke and TheShy have shared top lane duties this season. TheShy is one of the most individually skilled top laners in the world, while Duke has been great at playing tanks and starting off team fights for Invictus in the mid and late game.
G2 is led by mid laner Perkz. Perkz has been the team’s only constant throughout the season, as he has always played at a high level while those around him have struggled. He was out of this world against Royal Never Give Up, and his deep champion pool allows him to take on a variety of roles depending on what the team needs.
The problem for G2 is there isn’t another position that has been consistently good. Although they were incredible in a monumental upset over tournament favorite RNG, Hjarnan and Wadid aren’t a great bottom lane, and Jankos has been hit or miss as a jungler. Wunder has been largely good on either side of the Aatrox/Urgot match-up in the top lane, but if both champions are banned out, he could struggle.
All the credit to G2 for beating RNG, but I don’t believe they can knock off two LPL teams in a row.
Fnatic -225 Cloud9 +170
In their upset over the Afreeca Freecs, Cloud9 only used one surprise pick. Jensen took Akali into the mid lane against Ryze in Game 2, but the rest of the selections were in meta. That means they are likely to have one or two surprises in store for Fnatic in this series.
Cloud9 used a strong bottom lane in order to get an edge on Afreeca last week. Sneaky drafted Lucian in all three games, and he was constantly pushing the bottom lane. He averaged 10.1 CS/per minute in that series according to Games of Legends, and that gave him a consistent edge over Kramer.
Sneaky is unlikely to have the same impact against Fnatic’s bottom lane this week. Rekkles has been the best AD Carry in the West for a number of years, and he has rediscovered his old form after some missteps earlier in the year.
The mid lane battle should be an explosive one. Fnatic’s Caps and Cloud9’s Jensen have been two of the best mid laners in the West for some time now. Both players are known for their individual outplays, but what has really separated them from the pack this year has been their ability to take a back seat to their teammates to give them preferable match-ups.
Fnatic’s ability to deal with top laner Licorice is going to be one of the big factors in this game. Licorice jumped on tanks last week against Afreeca, but he might take a skill champion into the top lane against either Soaz or Bwipo. If he does that, Fnatic must prevent him from bullying his opponent in the laning phase.
Although Fnatic probably has the advantage in terms of individual skill, I’m going to take Cloud9 in this series because of Reapered’s innovative drafts. Caps did not look sharp in the mid lane against Scout last week, and I believe Cloud9 can frustrate him and pull off the upset.
