It wouldn’t be Christmas without the NBA, and it wouldn’t be Christmas basketball without LeBron James facing the Warriors. James’ history at this time and with this opponent is well-documented, though this will be his first experience with either as a member of the Lakers. Those looking for a small wager to go with their eggnog should take a look at this prop bet featuring James.
LeBron James Prop Bets: Total Points, Rebounds and Assists on Christmas
Over/Under 42.5
James has faced the Warriors 29 times since their rivalry began in earnest in the 2014-2015 season. The over would have won this bet in 22 of those games. In fact, in many of them, he wouldn’t even have needed all three statistics to go over. In two of them, he needed only points. In 14 others, he needed only points and either rebounds or assists. So not only is he going over 76 percent of the time in this matchup, but 55 percent of the time he’s going over so easily that the outcome isn’t even in question.
Related: NBA Betting
Since we know he usually goes over, let’s examine the times he didn’t and look for trends.
| Date | Location | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Total | Score | Outcome |
| 6-11-2015 | Home | 20 | 12 | 8 | 40 | 103-82 | Loss |
| 12-25-2015 | @GSW | 25 | 9 | 2 | 36 | 89-83 | Loss |
| 1-18-2016 | Home | 16 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 132-98 | Loss |
| 6-5-2016 | @GSW | 19 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 110-77 | Loss |
| 1-16-2017 | @GSW | 20 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 126-91 | Loss |
| 12-25-2017 | @GSW | 20 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 99-92 | Loss |
| 6-8-2018 | Home | 23 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 108-85 | Loss |
So here’s the bad news. Four of the seven unders came at Golden State, where this year’s game will be played. Further, of those four, two were played on Christmas.
You may have also noticed that all seven games were losses and all seven losses were either blowouts or low-scoring. As such, it will come as no surprise that all seven unders came when James played 41 minutes or fewer. In the 14 games in which he played more than 41 minutes, he went over every time.
It may seem bad that James failed to go over in his most recent matchup with Golden State, which was when the Warriors closed out the Cavaliers in Game 4 of last year’s Finals. But that’s actually good since James has only gone under in back-to-back Golden State games once. Since Game 3 of the 2015-2016 Finals, James has had at least four consecutive overs before going back under.
As for the 2018-2019 season, the trends aren’t quite as good. In 33 games, James would have gone over 42.5 17 times and under 16 times. He enters this game on a three-game over streak, which ties his longest of the season.
Bottom line: the only trend working against the over is James’ recent performances in Golden State on Christmas. In every other trend, the over wins at least slightly over 50 percent of the time and much more often in the friendlier trends. Take the over and give yourself the gift of rooting for a close, high-scoring game.
