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Sheridan: Betting on LeBron: Triple-Doubles, Career Scoring and More

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LeBron James has 73 career triple-doubles, 18 of which came last season for the Cleveland Cavaliers when he was surrounded by a cast of castoffs aside from Kevin Love. He added four more in the postseason.

For the upcoming 2018-19 season  with the Los Angeles Lakers, his over/under number for triple-doubles is 19 1/2. You like the over? Or the under?

One thing you never want to do as a general rule is bet against The King, although those who wagered on Golden State in 4 last June were richly rewarded.

Those who wagered on the Cavs in Game 1, this author included, got J.R. Smith cranial fratulance.

But here is the thing about LeBron bets: They are fun to watch.

Win or lose, you are guaranteed to see a freak of human nature do what others who have come before him have not done in generations. When folks call him the greatest basketball player they have ever seen, they generally mean it.

The folks at BetDSI.com have posted a number of LeBron James-related wagers for the upcoming NBA season, which tips off Tuesday night.

Right now he is 4-1 to be voted the Most Valuable Player; 9-1 to lead the NBA in scoring; 11-1 to lead the Lakers to a championship; 62-1 to lead the NBA in rebounding; and +900 to fail to surpass Kobe Bryant on the career scoring list (he is a mere 2,605 points behind Mamba, and he will surpass Dirk Nowitzki, Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan along the way.)

The safe thing to do (some would say) is to place wagers on LeBron to accomplish more than the oddsmakers expect him to accomplish, because when you are betting on a guy who has gone to eight consecutive NBA Finals …

Trae Young’s adidas. Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Well, you are not exactly wagering the mortgage on the Atlanta Hawks to bring home the Larry O’Brien trophy.

But things happen — injuries, broken air conditioning units (San Antonio), alumni games against teams with badasses such as James Johnson (Miami) or knuckleheads such as J.R. Smith (Cleveland) who know where the bodies are buried, and powerhouse teams from the other conference (Boston) with second-year players (Jayson Tatum) who have defensive reputations they would like to enhance.

At a certain point, LeBron is going to stop betting better and better each year.

Don’t bet on it happening in 2018-19. Correct, Lakers Nation?

OK, onto the newly-listed props:

Russell Westbrook’s triple-doubles: Over/under is 22 1/2. He had 25 of them last season (though none in the playoffs) and an astounding 42 the previous season. He does not have Carmelo Anthony playing alongside him anymore, and Dennis Schroeder has been terrific in the preseason. This looks like an easy over.

Ben Simmons triples-doubles: Over/under is 14 1/2. He had a dozen last season, 10 of which came from January on. I covered the kid for NJ.com when the Sixers were on their late-season roll with Joel Embiid sidelined with a fractured cheekbone, and I can honestly say he is one of the most freakish talents I have ever witnessed. Looks like an easy over here, too.

Nikola Jokic triple-doubles: Over/under is 13.5. He had 10 triples last season, all of them coming after Jan. 1, and two of them coming in the Nuggets’ final three games. David Griffin came on my podcast and said Jokic was not exactly the worst MVP candidate in the NBA, so if you want to take Griffin’s words and wager on them, this is the one you may want to focus on. If he picks up where he left over, the over should hit.

Ben Simmons over/under free throw percentage: 62.5. He shot almost 71 percent from the line in the postseason in the spring, but his rookie season number was 54.5. We are working on an over/under for 3-pointers made. Last season, Simmons was 0-for-11 — with 10 of those attempted quarter-ending heaves. Backcourt mate Markelle Fultz was 0-for-1 last season on 3s. Yes, Marco Belinelli will be missed in Philly.

DeAndre Jordan free throw percentage: Over/under 55 percent. Hack-a-DJ was Hack-a-Shaq 2.0 for a very long time, but Jordan’s 58 percent shooting from the line last season was easily a career-high. In his first nine seasons, he topped out at .482. In his preseason finale, he went 6-for-6.

ODDS ON KANTER LEADING NBA IN REBOUNDING DROP: 55-1 to 27-1
NBA SCORING LEADER: CAN ANYONE BEAT OUT JAMES HARDEN?
NBA ASSISTS LEADER: WHY WOULD ANYONE BET AGAINST WESTBROOK?
NBA MVP: HANDICAPPING THE RACE AMONG SUPERSTARS

 

Written by Chris Sheridan

Chris Sheridan is a veteran sports journalist who previously covered the NBA for ESPN. He worked for the Associated Press for 18 years, and also served as the 76ers beat writer for NJ.com. Sheridan is the host of Sports Betting Tips, a podcast covering all things gambling.

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