As the International break concludes, we get back to Lega Calcio for the third round of the campaign.
World Cup qualifying caused a small interruption for nearly all of world leagues of football. While qualifying for the World Cup continues, we are back to league play this weekend around Europe. Of course, Serie A has played only two weekends in the young campaign, so the break comes at a strange time.
There won’t be a break in Lega Calcio action again until October 1st, when another International break occurs. Over the next four weekends, Serie A will play five rounds of football. There will be a set of mid-week fixtures coming on September 19-20, In addition, six Serie A clubs will be facing Champions League and Europa League group stage campaigns to manage.
AS Roma will play host to Atletico Madrid in the first round of group C play on Tuesday, September 12. It was rather cool to see Francesco Totti at the Champions League draw for the group stage destinations. Obviously, a little smile came to his face when he opened up the Roma ball, which landed them in group C with Atleti, Chelsea and Qarabag.
Juventus also plays on September 12, although their opponent might be a little more recognizable than most. Juventus and Barcelona landed in group D, and face off right away to kick off the festivities.
Napoli got by Ligue 1’s Nice in Champions League qualifying and landed in group F. They’ll play Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday in the Ukraine.
Atalanta, AC Milan and Lazio will begin their Europa League group stage play on Thursday, September 14.
Until we get there, we gots ourselves some Lega Calcio to concerned about.
Each club has played one home match, and this weekend features two matches on Saturday, and eight on Sunday. With two matches in the books, five clubs have secured all 6 possible points in the table. If the campaign were to end today… I mean really? Who does that and why? We have 36 matches to go, so that was just to make myself laugh.
Juventus, Inter Milan, Napoli, AC Milan and Sampdoria are the five clubs who have opened the campaign perfectly. Just as fittingly, five clubs are at the bottom of the Serie A table with zero points. Sassuolo and Crotone are the only clubs remaining that have not scored a goal through two outings in the young Lega Calcio campaign. Surprisingly, everyone has surrendered a goal already, and only five clubs have allowed only one goal. The remaining 15 clubs in the league have given up two or more already, so here we go again!
I say again because we were well over 1,100 goals scored in last year’s campaign. For those who follow the stats, there have only been a handful of seasons that have seen 1,000 goals scored. Most of that has changed recently because scoring in Lega Calcio is way up from the last few years.
In all, there were 1,132 goals scored a season ago in Serie A, the fourth highest in league history. The record was set in the 1949/50 campaign when there were 1,265 balls that hit the back of the net. There were 1,200 goals scored in the 1947/48 campaign, and in the 1950/51 season, 1,192 goals were scored.
It wasn’t until 2012 that the goal scoring numbers started to change in Italy. From 1951 to 2011, there was not one 1,000 goal campaign, but now we have seen it happen in four of the last five years. Being the totals guy that I am when it comes to betting, I notice those type of things.
In any event, we have matches to discuss and money to be made.
Saturday, September 9 – 2 Matches
Juventus vs Chievo Verona
3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Juventus -525
Draw +650
Chievo +2100
Handicap/Spread:
Juventus -2 -110
Chievo +2 -110
Total 3:
Over +105
Under -115
Sampdoria vs AS Roma
Sampdoria +305
Draw +295
Roma -110
Sampdoria +0.5 -110
Roma -0.5 -110
Total 3:
Over -110
Under -110
Sunday, September 10 – 8 Matches
inter Milan vs Spal
Inter Milan -420
Draw +600
Spal +1300
Inter -1.5 -130
Spal +1.5 +110
Total 3:
Over -125
Under +105
Udinese vs Genoa
Udinese +145
Draw +225
Genoa +235
Udinese 0/Pk DNB -145
Genoa 0/Pk DNB +125
Total 2.5:
Over +105
Under -125
Lazio vs AC Milan
Lazio +150
Draw +245
Milan +205
Lazio 0/Pk DNB -130
Milan 0/Pk DNB +110
Total 2.5:
Over -120
Under +100
Cagliari vs Crotone
Cagliari -140
Draw +285
Crotone +480
Cagliari -1 +120
Crotone +1 -140
Total 2.5:
Over -110
Under -110
Atalanta vs Sassuolo
Atalanta -170
Draw +320
Sassuolo +550
Atalanta -1 -110
Sassuolo +1 -110
Total 2.5:
Over -110
Under -110
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina
Verona +245
Draw +245
Fiorentina +125
Verona +0.5 -145
Fiorentina -0.5 +125
Total 2.5:
Over -110
Under -110
Benevento vs Torino
Benevento +350
Draw +280
Torino -115
Benevento +0.5 -105
Torino -0.5 -115
Total 2.5:
Over -125
Under +105
Bologna vs Napoli
Bologna +900
Draw +450
Napoli -285
Bologna +1.5 -110
Napoli -1.5 -110
Total 3:
Over -110
Under -110
Starting in Turin as the schedule reads, Juventus plays host to Chievo in their palace of a home. The numbers continue to pile up for the Old Lady, as their home dominance is clearly a big advantage.
Did you happen to catch that the Juve team total is set at 2.5, but yet that game total holds on at 3? Really? In fact, both plays are listed at +105 as I see it, so those hold value to me.
Let’s not even get into the seven goals Juventus has already scored in their two outings. We have seen duplicate 2 – 1 results in both of Chievo’s affairs so far, and what a price on their team total. How does a +145 on the Chievo Over 0.5 a damn goal sound?
One goal in 90 minutes is all we would need, and that play is staring me in the face. It’s not even about trying to be all bold about it and offer up some crazy +145 line that has no chance to happen. Chievo might find the net once, and to cash that total of 3 outright, I will need one from Chievo possibly.
Gigi Buffon is still between the frame back there, so it’s not that easy to just jump on anyone to score vs Juventus. I get that Bonucci is gone, we all get that, but it’s still Juventus. I see a Chiellini calf might have him off that back line though, and we know Evra is long gone.
Maybe we might see a little scoring from both sides, and bet365 would fancy your action first. They offer a +175 on the Both Teams to Score prop in Turin. How’s them apples?! I see +145 at most other sites that offer it, but man, +175 is just a lovely line.
Okay, well what’s my motto? Fortune favors the bold, so why play around with this anymore.
With a 3 – 1 expectation, I suggest a whole bunch of betting options for this contest.
Suggested Plays:
Juventus vs Chievo
Juventus Team Total Over 2.5 @ +107
Game Total Over 3 @ +106
Both Teams to Score (Yes) @ +145
Chievo Team Total Over 0.5 @ +145
Obviously, all that could go astray should Gigi keep a clean sheet at home, again. Did I mention he’s done that one or… two million times, it seems.
And that is just one match to start the weekend, so I guess four plays keeps the doctor away! Chievo finding the net sure will be what makes almost all of that happen, so yes, I know the chance it is. Juventus has taken a result in 14 straight games vs Chievo, a run that dates back to January of 2010. Find the net boys, and give us all a little scoring to stand up and cheer about.
In accordance, the second game on Saturday might feature some goal scoring of its own.
Sampdoria has won back-to-back 2 – 1 games to start their campaign. Benevento and Fiorentina were the victims, and Roma was a victim of a 3 – 1 loss of their own last weekend. Inter Milan plowed into Rome, and made the Maggica home opener a miserable one.
I am not surprised at all to see the straight 3 on this total. Three goals don’t seem like much of an uphill battle to climb to me, it’s the fourth one we need. Pushing a total of 3 is not the worst result when you have a +101 on the action.
Suggested Play:
Sampdoria vs Roma
Game Total Over 3 @ +101
Spal came through for us in round 2 with that lovely late goal over Udinese to win 3 – 2. The line setters sure think Inter Milan is all that and a bag of chips, don’t they? I assumed when the total to go over the 3 was listed at -125, that Inter would be favored big. They are, and they have a 2.5 on their team total in tow.
Luckily, the Spal team total was listed right under it, and I found my play. Spal can’t score against Inter Milan at the San Siro? Is this a test, because if it is, I choose option A.
Let’s go over the two options.
Spal scores a damn goal, or they don’t.
Well, that was short and sweet, and as I said, option A is my direction.
Suggested Play:
Inter Milan vs Spal
Spal Team Total Goals Over 0.5 @ -110
Another play on a total caught my eye, and it wasn’t even tough for me to decide on.
So Genoa and Udinese are going at it, and would you look at that. Mr. Perin has actually stayed on the field for more than a week or two. It seems the Genoa keeper just keeps finding ways to get hurt, Paulo Dybala made him wish he was back on the disabled list vs Juventus last time out. Dybala completed his hat-trick and is proving why he put on that #10 jersey.
I mentioned Spal finding three goals against Udinese in round 2, and now we have a decent line on this total. I suggest you move it down to the handicap, which is featured as such:
Suggested Play:
Genoa vs Udinese
Game Total Over 2 & 2.5 Handicap @ -110
I think I am going to not try to battle with the Benevento result again. I thought it was weird when Marco Barroni took out Ceravolo five minutes after they went down 1 – 0 vs Bologna. The Stregoni had already lost their opening Serie A match, and then you go down and pull one of your go-to guys? Benevento never scored, and now they are 0 – 0 – 2 and already in the early hole.
I want to see how they respond this weekend, especially with a Torino club that looks good early.
Regardless, I will catch you for the fourth round of the Lega Calcio campaign next weekend.
In Bocca Al Lupo!
