The news is out, and it’s viral – Conor McGregor will NOT be fighting Rafael dos Anjos for the UFC lightweight title, and instead will be fighting a replacement. This changes things – a LOT of things.
As I sit stalking Twitter, refreshing it every couple of minutes looking at all the MMA discussion, I can’t help but think about the magnitude that this single injury has caused. It’s a domino effect that spreads very wide, and has a lot of implications for both Conor McGregor and the UFC. To start, McGregor will not get a chance to become a two-weight world champion on March 5th. This will have to be delayed, and in the process, will change the tentative schedule laid out for Conor, the featherweight division, the lightweight division, and even the welterweight division.
Let’s crack into this with the basic question of, “why isn’t the UFC just postponing this fight to a later date?”. Every PPV event from here until UFC 199 is booked in terms of main events. Besides, we know the UFC wants Conor McGregor to be featured at UFC 200. Fighting at any time other than March will make his turn around from his next fight to UFC 200 that much more difficult – especially if he takes any amount of damage.
So now that we know McGregor will not be fighting dos Anjos, I think it’s safe to assume what the UFC is aiming for with UFC 200 then. There were talks of McGregor moving up to 170 lbs and fighting Robbie Lawler for the welterweight championship at UFC 200 if he defeated dos Anjos, but the UFC obviously requires McGregor to capture the lightweight belt before doing so. UFC 200 thus will be dos Anjos vs. McGregor so long as Conor can be victorious against his replacement opponent at UFC 196.
So this prompts the question of whether or not McGregor will be fighting for the Interim belt at UFC 196. This way, the UFC can market McGregor as a two-weight champion who will be attempting to unify his lightweight belt with Rafael dos Anjos. I believe they will not do this. Here’s why: whoever meets McGregor at UFC 196 will have a chance at beating him. If it’s Donald Cerrone that fights McGregor, and Cerrone emerges victorious, he will then theoretically become the interim champion and have a ticket to meet Rafael dos Anjos for a third time. Nobody wants to see that; not when Khabib Nurmagomedov, Tony Ferguson, and Eddie Alvarez are waiting for their title shots. The same goes for Nate Diaz – a win would put Diaz in line for a title shot and he would leap frog a handful of very deserving contenders.
Another angle to consider is the featherweight division. Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo are both waiting for a chance to become the featherweight champion by fighting McGregor for his featherweight belt. I believe the UFC’s plan was to have Conor McGregor fight either Edgar or Aldo for the featherweight belt IF Conor lost to Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 200. Now with this delay happening, you can expect Edgar and Aldo to fight each other – most likely for the interim belt as their shot at McGregor may not be happening for a while, if ever.
The same also applies to Robbie Lawler and the welterweight division. Expect him to defend his belt at UFC 199 or UFC 200 while Conor is forced to handle the delays at lightweight. If Conor should lose any time at lightweight, the chances of him meeting Lawler (or any welterweight champion) in the near future would disappear. However, if Conor can beat whoever they put in front of him at UFC 196, and then defeat Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 200 – then you can expect a bout between McGregor and whoever is the welterweight champion in the fall (further delaying the featherweight belt, if not vacating it).
In summary, Conor McGregor will be fighting opponent TBA at UFC 196 and it won’t be for the UFC lightweight belt. This means Conor will have to win at UFC 196 in order to fight Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 200. In the mean time, expect the interim featherweight title to be contended for between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar while Lawler defends his welterweight title against either Stephen Thompson or Tyron Woodley. If Conor loses to either opponent TBA or Rafael dos Anjos, then expect him to defend his featherweight belt against the winner of Aldo/Edgar. But if Conor wins and becomes the UFC lightweight champion, then he will face whoever is welterweight champion at some point in the fall.
What a debacle.
