The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 16 needing one win to clinch the best record in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions own the best record in the NFC North but they still haven’t clinched a playoff spot with two games to go. The massive playoff implications will add to an intriguing Week 16 showdown with both teams looking to make a statement on Monday Night Football.
Moneyline: Cowboys -330
Handicap/Spread Odds: Cowboys -7
Total O/U: 44.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 01/04/15 | DET 20 – DAL 24 | DET 6 | U 47.5 |
| 10/27/13 | DAL 30 – DET 31 | DAL 3 | O 51 |
| 10/02/11 | DET 34 – DAL 30 | DET 2.5 | O 46 |
| 11/21/10 | DET 19 – DAL 35 | DAL -5 | O 47.5 |
| 12/09/07 | DAL 28 – DET 27 | DET 10.5 | O 50.5 |
On The Lions Side of the Ball (9-5 Record, 8-6 ATS)
At 9-5, Detroit is one game up on the Green Bay Packers with a looming showdown between those teams set for Week 17 at Lambeau Field. The Lions offense couldn’t solve the New York Giants defense in Week 16 as they were held to just six points, which is something the Cowboys are familiar with after losing twice to New York already this season. Matt Stafford and company will need a strong bounce back effort this week and while the Dallas defense isn’t as dominant as the Giants they do have an explosive offense that will be tough to keep up with. That will mean Detroit also needs a strong defensive effort in order to keep Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott in check. The Lions own the NFL’s 10th-ranked scoring defense and it will be put to the test by the Cowboys this week.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | @NYG | L 6-17 | L 4 | U 42.5 |
| 12/11/16 | CHI | W 20-17 | L -7.5 | U 42 |
| 12/04/16 | @NO | W 28-13 | W 6.5 | U 53 |
| 11/24/16 | MIN | W 16-13 | W -1.5 | U 42 |
| 11/20/16 | JAC | W 26-19 | W -5.5 | U 47 |
On The Cowboys Side of the Ball (12-2 Record, 9-5 ATS)
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott deserve a ton of credit for leading one of the more formidable offenses in the NFL and it will be very interesting to see how they fare on Monday night. Dallas has averaged 154.5 rushing yards per game and Elliott will likely be looking very forward to getting a chance to move the ball against the Lions suspect run defense. Meanwhile, with all of the talk swirling about Tony Romo’s potential to play this season it will be on Prescott to silence his doubters with another strong performance. The Cowboys can score points in bunches and it will be on Prescott and Elliott to lead the way in this one in order to lock them in as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense has managed to hold its own throughout the year and will do everything it can to keep Stafford and company from developing any momentum on Monday night.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | TB | W 26-20 | L -7 | U 47.5 |
| 12/11/16 | @NYG | L 7-10 | L -3.5 | U 47 |
| 12/01/16 | @MIN | W 17-15 | L -3 | U 43.5 |
| 11/24/16 | WAS | W 31-26 | L -5.5 | O 53 |
| 11/20/16 | BAL | W 27-17 | W -7 | U 44.5 |
Quick Analysis
Dallas is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games overall and yet they are still getting seven points on the line. Meanwhile, Detroit has dropped consecutive games ATS but is still 4-2 ATS over its last six games overall. The fact that the Lions are getting a full touchdown in a must-win game is somewhat surprising so it might make sense to fade the Cowboys once again this week.
Prediction
Dallas is undoubtedly one of the top teams in the NFL with Prescott and Elliott leading the way but they have gotten more respect than they deserve in recent weeks and the result has been a terrible record against the spread. However, on the flip side, you have a Lions team that has been shaky the last couple of weeks ever since quarterback Matt Stafford injured his throwing hand. Beyond that, the Cowboys say they’ll play all of their starters but will they rest anyone late in the game? It’s hard to say. With that in mind, we’d recommend the under. Look for the Lions to do their best to slow the Cowboys running game and keep this a game in the teens or early 20’s. It’s hard to see them going on the road to Dallas and winning a shootout.
Pick: Under
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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